FORMLAB Thirsk · 17:35 DATA PACE FORENSIC HORSES
FORMLAB RACING
THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Thirsk · 17:35
Class 4 · 7f · Good to Soft (Good in places) · CLASS PAR -8.5
MEDIAN OR 77 · MEDIAN FHM 70.1
COURSE GRADE: High (#11 of 36)
avg winning FSF 63.5 (Class 4, n=88)
BUILT 14:22 · 5 Sep 26 · 9 RUNNERS PROFILED
HOW TO READ THIS REPORT · STANDING NOTE & GLOSSARY
Everything below is descriptive. The orders, figures, reads and profiles measure — they do not select, tip or recommend a horse, and no line is a bet leg. The market decides value. Figures, market and going are as of build time (see header); ground changes after build are not reflected. Going and surface records are context, never a downgrade — the market already prices them.
GLOSSARY — 15 TERMS · CLICK TO OPEN
graded NN% · miss NN% · n=N — module-level audit: of that module’s past claims, the share that settled HIT and the share that settled MISS, counted nightly against results and never hand-tuned. Both are shown because the modules do not share a PART convention — a 32% hit rate with a 1% miss rate is a different animal from a 41% hit rate with a 59% miss rate. null 50% appears only where the claim is graded HIT or MISS with no middle, so a coin flip is the exact baseline; where it is graded three ways, no null is stated, because there is no honest one.
HIT / PART / MISS — the three settlement outcomes used when a claim is graded against the result. Hover any grade for that module’s full split and race count.
Dotted-underlined reads — each Forensic Read carries its own hit rate on hover: the share of graded outings that read has hit, alongside its family average.
⇆ on a trainer condition — the two seasons disagree — that condition sits on opposite sides of A/E 1.00 in 2024-25 and in 2026. One of the two is noise and the row cannot say which, so read it as untested rather than as a finding. Each group header carries its own count.
A/E — actual wins divided by the wins the market’s prices implied. Betfair SP is a near-fair book, so 1.00 is the null, not zero: above it the runner or yard beat the market, below it the market was right. Where an interval is shown the figure is coloured only if that interval clears 1.00 outright.
DOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER — won last time with more in hand than the assessor’s rise. Full dossier on file.
FORMLAB WATCH — flagged by the start-excuse screen.
THIN · CHAINED — collateral-form lines resting on few meetings (THIN) or read through intermediate horses (CHAINED); error compounds with chain length.
FIT n/18 · Peaks · ΔMARK · HIDDEN PEAK — defined inline at the head of the Optimal Conditions Profile.
Grey dimension — no evidence either way; scores zero. Shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch.
needs · THE LEVEL — the projected winning figure (TFR-scale pts): the median of the top-3 opposition’s prior figures plus a sealed +6pt calibration [P109] (holdout median error 0.00; ±5pt coverage 65.8%). THE LEVEL cell reads each runner’s best against it under today’s race conditions. LOW CONFIDENCE marks a wide band or thin exposure; where several runners are unraced/unexposed the read covers only the raced portion — an unexposed runner wins ~30% of races with 3+ of them (~10% with 1-2).
SEASONAL FLAG — gold note on the Time-of-year row: a profile with 3+ career wins of which 75%+ fell in this month ±1. Wins 15.7% (A/E 1.08, 2023-25 design) and 14.2% (A/E 1.11, 2026 holdout) [P113] — persistently under-priced. Descriptive, never an instruction.
FLAG: young & already proven at the level — gold note in THE LEVEL cell: a 2-3yo whose best figure already meets the projected needs. Wins 25% (A/E 1.13, 2024-26) and 29% (A/E 1.16, 2023 holdout) [P111, corrected 2026-08-23 for winner-exposure filtering].
COURSE GRADE — header strip: every course ranked on the FormLab course scale by the quality of animal it hosts (tier · rank). Avg winning FSF is the house speed figure of past winners at this course, class-matched where the course has 5+ figured winners in today’s class — otherwise the all-class average, labelled as such. Averages OR/TFR sit in the hover.
FSF — FormLab Speed Figure — the house time-based figure (course standard + daily variant), built from raw times, independent of Timeform. Its pts scale is its own: never read an FSF against a TFR.
1 · DATA2 · PACE & SETUP3 · FORENSIC4 · PROFILES
1 / 4Datawhat kind of race this is, and what the money thinks
THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYSboth orders below are marked against the actual results every night — how often each one’s top pick won, and how often the winner came from its projected top 3full record →
DATA ORDER
top pick won 27.3%winner in its top 3 58.1%747 settled raceslatest day: won 9/21 · top-3 11/21
against the marketA/E 0.99 [0.89–1.10]ROI +6.4% [-10.8, +25.7]
FORENSIC READ
top pick won 23.8%winner in its top 3 55.7%747 settled races(the Data Order on those same races: 27.3% · 58.1%)
against the marketA/E 1.00 [0.88–1.12]ROI +16.1% [-6.9, +44.4]one 65.0 winner is 8.7pp of that
THE LEDGER ON THIS RACE TYPE
every line is a settled count matched to this race · paired figures are the two test windows: design (to 31 Jul) / live (since) — a line only appears when both agree · display only, nothing here picks a horse
HOUSE RECORD IN THIS RACE TYPE · Data P1 wins: handicap 23.1% (n=641 all settled, A/E 0.962 at BSP, holdout window) · 8-11 runners 24.5% (n=364 all settled, A/E 1.014 at BSP, holdout window) · Class 3-4 27.4% (n=379 all settled, A/E 0.985 at BSP, holdout window) · turf 28.5% (n=829 all settled, A/E 0.998 at BSP, holdout window) · overall 27.1% · window: all 1050 settled races of the sealed study (the sidecar states no date window)
LEANclass readTurf 74.2%/73% (n 1224/2653) · trip <8f 72.8%/72.7% (n 851/1948) · field 8-11 70.1%/72.7% (n 475/1713) · +1 more cells — strong in both windows [P122]
CAVEATeditorial readTurf 39.5%/39.4% (n 596/1308) · trip <8f 34.1%/37% (n 440/1027) · field 8-11 34.9%/37.8% (n 242/831) — weak in both windows [P122]
LEANtrends readTurf 73.6%/72.2% (n 715/1772) · trip <8f 72.4%/73.3% (n 512/1424) · field 8-11 70.6%/71.4% (n 301/1192) · +1 more cells — strong in both windows [P122]
RETIREDconnectionsweak in both windows in all 10 tested contexts; retired by operator 28 Aug 26 — 4 yard angles in this field shown as description only, uncounted [P122]
SHORTdemand readtop figure 85 v the 89.3 this race projects to take — P1s that clear that bar win 39.7%/38.9%, those short win 22.1%/23.3% · the market already prices this (A/E ~1.0 both ways), so it reads the race, it never finds a bet [P125]
GATE CARD [P124] · struck 2026-09-05T14:02
G1 SEGMENT READSTATEDhow we have performed in races of this type — accuracy AND value, stated not judged · hcp=HCP SR 25.1/22.1% A/E 1.011/0.962 [0.78-1.14] UNPROVEN P/L -15.1/+18.8 (n 279/389) · field=8-11 SR 23.7/25.8% A/E 0.985/1.014 [0.80-1.22] UNPROVEN P/L -21.5/+6.7 (n 135/260) · cls=3-4 SR 23.3/31.8% A/E 0.742/0.985 [0.80-1.17] UNPROVEN P/L -56.2/+17.4 (n 163/236) · surf=Turf SR 29.4/28.2% A/E 1.013/0.998 [0.86-1.14] UNPROVEN P/L -6.2/+51.6 (n 377/483) · trip=<8f SR 26.3/28.1% A/E 0.97/1.013 [0.85-1.18] UNPROVEN P/L -24.5/+16.7 (n 247/359) [P116b] · paired figures as the sidecar states them; it carries no window label
G2 CONVERGENCEOPENFiscal Policy carries 2 of 3 desk votes, not the favourite · D Obelix · F Fiscal Policy · V Fiscal Policy · T Obelix — 2 distinct · fav Obelix 4.2
G3 VALUEOPENFiscal Policy: tissue 9.8, market 12.5 (ratio 1.28, conf HIGH), inside the 4.0-15.0 window — bigger than fair
G5 CONTEXTCLOSEDgoing Good to Soft (Good in places) · 4 runner(s) carry TROUBLE flags (last 3 runs, * = corroborated [P123]): Obelix HAMPERED; Midnight Strike KEEN; Imperial Guard SWITCHED; Packetofbiscuits NO_ROOM — complications present: they argue against a clean read
2/3 GATES OPEN · G1 states the segment record, it does not reject — display only [P26]; NO BET is the normal output; the operator decides
THE RECORD IN RACES LIKE THISthe same nightly-settled record, kept only to past races sharing this race’s profile · window: every settled race since both orders were live (the Forensic Read from 16 Jul 26) — not the 30-day masthead window
Data OrderForensic Read
races like this onesettledwontop-3wontop-3
Class 419230.7%66.1%23.4%60.4%
sprints (5-7f)35730.3%58%24.1%56.3%
handicaps52121.3%53.6%20%51.1%
mid fields (8-11)33526.9%55.5%22.7%48.4%
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
20 similar races at THIRSK, 6.5-7.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jul-Nov, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites). 10% won last time out, 15% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
40% (8/20) 4yo
35% (7/20) 6yo+
15% (3/20) 3yo
Last ran
50% (10/20) 15-45d
30% (6/20) within 14d
15% (3/20) 46-90d
Market
30% (6/20) 4th+ in the market
30% (6/20) favourite
25% (5/20) 3rd favourite
LTO form
75% (15/20) unplaced last time
15% (3/20) placed last time
10% (2/20) won last time
The shape of past winners here — a DESCRIPTION of the race, not a way of picking a horse. Tested three times: once a horse has run recently and sits near the head of the market, the other cells here add nothing.
YARDS AT THIS TRACK · from the Racecourse Guide · handicaps, last 3 years · the same numbers the Guide prints
Go well here
Michael & David Easterby 17.4% A/E 1.74 n=46 no runner today
Mark Walford 7.1% A/E 1.64 n=28 no runner today
David O'Meara 26.7% A/E 1.48 n=75 ← runs Capital Guarantee (Ire) today
Kevin Ryan 14.8% A/E 1.36 n=54 no runner today
Charlie Johnston 13.9% A/E 1.30 n=36 no runner today
Struggle here
Grant Tuer 0.0% A/E 0.00 n=24 no runner today
Michael Appleby 0.0% A/E 0.00 n=20 no runner today
John & Sean Quinn 3.8% A/E 0.46 n=52 no runner today
Brian Ellison 3.8% A/E 0.60 n=26 no runner today
Ruth Carr 4.9% A/E 0.66 n=61 ← runs Fiscal Policy (Ire) today
A/E = wins v the price-expected count at BSP. A yard on a list is context, not a pick [P26]; the market prices trainers too.
SHORTLIST · ran within 45 days + first 4 in the market, ties share · 4 horses
OBELIX 4.2 · NYMAN (IRE) 4.4 · MR KING (IRE) 5.9 · CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) 8.6
Holds the winner about 62% of the time (measured, 11,122 handicaps, both windows). The market does most of that work; the 45-day cut trims a horse. A sieve for where to spend reading time — not a selection. [P26]
THIS IS THE ONE · evidence tier on the shortlist · tissue / FHM / FSF, each strictly before today
CLEAROBELIX 4.2 — top on tissue · FSF; this shape fires in 44%, wins 25%, places 61%
LEANMR KING (IRE) 5.9 — top on FHM; this shape fires in 62%, wins 21%, places 53%
The stated chance beside each tier has been right to within a point this year. It tells you HOW LIKELY; the price is yours. Not a selection — the operator decides.
RACES LIKE THISClass 4 · miles (7-9f) · handicap · mid fields (8-11) — how each order has done in the 34 settled races sharing this exact profile, beside the all-races base (1284 settled)
DATA ORDERtop pick won 20.6% vs 26.8% all raceswinner in its top 3 64.7% vs 58.8% all races
FORENSIC READtop pick won 20.6% vs 24.5% all raceswinner in its top 3 64.7% vs 57.2% all races
settled record, shared denominators — a profile read, never a pick
The Field at a Glance · figure order · every name jumps to its full card below
#RunnerFormLabORFHM · ΔDrawStyleGoingTissueMarketIn one line
1OBELIX85.08170A● -112HELD-UPuntried5.644.30among the two fastest on speed against its past fields
2MR KING (IRE)83.37776A● -11HELD-UP0/45.796.80among the two fastest on speed against its past fields
3MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)79.77761A● -16
stale7MID0/17.9320.00early sectional positions fit the dominant style here
4IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)79.37573A● -25MID0/37.348.60backed since the morning
5STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)78.08171A● -106PROMINENT0/213.9750.00sharp from the stalls
6FISCAL POLICY (IRE)77.07171A● +09MID0/39.7812.50dropping in class
7NYMAN (IRE)75.07067A● -33MIDuntried10.724.50ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form
8CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE)72.37868A● -108MIDPROVEN12.508.00backed since the morning
9PACKETOFBISCUITS437252A● -204HELD-UP1/224.6340.00backed since the morning
The Pace Map · stalls across · projected early position down · drawn from the same reads as the text · [P26]FRONTPROMINENTMIDHELD-UP123456789Stanley SpencerNymanImperial GuardMidnight StrikeCapital GuaranteeFiscal PolicyMr KingObelixPacketofbiscuits
2 / 4Pace & Race Setuphow this race gets run
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible.
This track · what has happened here before — every figure below carries its own count
What this course & distance favours
How often each running style actually wins here — out of every runner that raced that way, not just the winners: front-runners 21% of 96 · prominent racers 12% of 139 · midfield runners 5% of 116 · hold-up closers 5% of 147. Read from 498 runners with an early-position read. Share of past winners (NOT a strike rate — it does not say the style outperforms): front-runners 41% · prominent racers 33%. From 49 past C&D winners · won up with the pace. Sharp, relatively short finish; suits horses already in position — poor for a horse needing time to organise. Winners’ energy signature: 48.67% spent early (band 47.75–49.07%, 66 measured winners, and the typical winner sits ~3 at halfway, 0.21s off the lead). graded 35% · miss 24% · n=1980 Only one confirmed early type — the likely leader can dictate, a real edge at a track this front/prominent-biased.
On the clock here (turf) — races here run the opening third at 99.0 and the final furlong at 103.9 per cent of their own average furlong (turf norms 99.2 and 105.0) — an early pace about typical for the surface, with a faster finish than most — a turn of foot counts · 309 races; the horse leading at halfway goes on to win 29.0% of the time against a 11.1% by-chance line — 2.61× · 303 races; ground moves the clock: stride runs 7.461 m on firm side against 7.101 m on soft side · a spread of 0.360 m; and this is a sharp track, where a stride edge over the field has paid nothing (1.00×) · 3,850 runs at sharp tracks — a long stride is no advantage here. Racing TV sectionals & timing 2024→, from the Course Timing and Pace Shape censuses — describes the track, never a horse.
This courseranks #11 of 36 GB courses on class quality · typical race: class 5 · avg field 10 · favourites 25% (A/E 0.93, 228 races) · fair — 62% of winners race early · sharp, relatively short finish; suits horses already in position — poor for a horse needing time to organise
Today’s field · each horse’s last 6 timed runs unless the line says otherwise
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–9
123456789
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–9).
The pace map · measured early lanes · L# = late-speed rank
FRONT—
PROMINENT6STANLEY SPENCERL9
MID3NYMANL15IMPERIAL GUARDL77MIDNIGHT STRIKEL68CAPITAL GUARANTEEL89FISCAL POLICYL2
HELD-UP1MR KINGL42OBELIXL54PACKETOFBISCUITSL3
Each horse in its usual early lane — the measured run-style read, not a prediction of today’s break — with its stall and its rank on Finishing Power rank in this field. The early/late split at a glance: a front-lane horse ranked low on late speed needs controlling; a held-up horse ranked L1–L2 needs pace to close into.
The Setup ReadPACE × COURSE × FIELD · COUNTED
What today asks of this field: a lone early type; soft-side ground, where stride here shortens. Each column ticks the best match in THIS field and crosses the worst — hover any cell for its basis.
RunnerShapeEnergyFinishDrawStrideBreakNet
Stanley Spencer✓––––✓+2
Imperial Guard––✓–––+1
Packetofbiscuits––✓–––+1
Capital Guarantee✗––✓––+0
Fiscal Policy✗––✓––+0
Midnight Strike✗––✓––+0
Nyman––✓✗––+0
Mr King✗––✗––-2
Obelix✗––✗––-2
Stanley Spencer is the only measured early type at a track where the halfway leader converts 2.61× chance — an uncontested lead is the single biggest setup edge on this page.Stanley Spencer’s case is cumulative, not single-factor — 2 of the 6 dimensions: the only measured early type - an uncontested lead · the field's best break (+0.05s).How it loses: the lone leader over-commits and the collapse hands it to the sustained finishers.The next best cards in the field: Imperial Guard counters on finish (sprint-home finish here and a measured closing-speed edge); Packetofbiscuits counters on finish (sprint-home finish here and a measured closing-speed edge).And the matrix reads Obelix worst set up (net -2): needs the front to stop; stall 2 = LOW tercile: impact value 0.71 over 255 races here (1.0 = no bias).The count says Stanley Spencer (net +2) — while the market prefers Obelix, whose case the matrix scores weaker. The divergence, not the read, is what deserves the second look.
EVERY CELL A FIXED RULE QUOTING ITS MEASURED BASIS (HOVER) · NET IS A COUNT, NOT A WEIGHT · CONTEXT, NEVER A SELECTION [P26]
Draw at this track · share of winners by stall thirdHIGH favoured
LOW23%IV 0.71
MID35%IV 1.04
HIGH42%IV 1.25
basis: THIRSK, sprints, all goings, 255 races · context only — describes the track, not any runner
whole-career records — not the last-6 window
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: OBELIX is 0/1 on softer ground · MR KING (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerDrawEarly laneEarly effortFinishing powerSetup
STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) 6 PROMINENT 49.7% #9 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
OBELIX 2 HELD-UP 50.4% #5 held up without the late gear (5th of 9 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) 8 MID 51.2% #8 one-paced late — 8th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) 7 MID 50.6% #6 one-paced late — 6th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
MR KING (IRE) 1 HELD-UP 50.7% #4 one-paced late — 4th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) 5 MID 47.7% #7 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
PACKETOFBISCUITS 4 HELD-UP 49.4% #3 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
FISCAL POLICY (IRE) 9 MID 50.7% #2 one-paced late — 2nd of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
NYMAN (IRE) 3 MID 50.4% #1 the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
Finishing Power ranks where each horse’s final 2f placed among the horses it actually raced against, over its last 6 timed runs. #1 is the strongest finisher in today’s field on that measure.
They spread 3.5 points on early effort (47.7% to 51.2%) — the higher numbers work hardest before the final 2f.
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself
Finishing Power · [P48] registered read · final-2f percentile, last 6 timed runs
1NYMAN (IRE)0.632FISCAL POLICY (IRE)0.593PACKETOFBISCUITS0.584MR KING (IRE)0.575OBELIX0.566MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)0.557IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)0.538CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE)0.539STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)0.45
Graded record (holdout, 2,458 races): its top pick won 15.14% against an any-runner baseline of 11.01%; the winner came from its top 3 40.93% of the time; A/E 1.031. BSP-offset beta CI spans zero — the market already prices this read; context, never value.
3 / 4Forensicthe reads, counted and argued — in one place
SIXTY-SECOND VERDICT
THE SHAPEA 9-runner Class 4 handicap sprint over 7f on Good to Soft (Good in places) ground. Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites).
THE PACEOne confirmed early type — lone-lead possible: 1 early types (STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)). STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–9).
THE LEANThe figures lead with OBELIX -- top on the figures, 1.7pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the counted reads land on STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (drops in class).
THE DANGEROBELIX — tends to burn early and empty out and a yard out of form. STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge OBELIX lacks: sharp from the stalls.
THE SWINGA going switch changes the picture most: OBELIX is 2/18 on quicker ground -- records only, aptitude is context, never a downgrade.
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (70% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, OBELIX leads on 85, 1.7pts clear of MR KING (IRE) — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. OBELIX — tends to burn early and empty out and a yard out of form. The shape danger is IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes OBELIX the 23% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
WHY THIS P1 · OBELIX: figure rank 1 of 9 · 3 desks converge [figure, trip, market] · slim counter 2/3 · NOT the slim-counter leader (Mr King is)
1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 2
OBELIX
OR 81 · FHM 70 A● -11 · Jason Hart / Julie Camacho
MARKET 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
85.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (85.0)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 2.04)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 1
MR KING (IRE)
OR 77 · FHM 76 A● -1 · David Allan / Geoffrey Harker
MARKET 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
83.3 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 7−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (83.3)A course winner (1 from 2 here)
3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 7
MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)
OR 77 · FHM 61 A● -16 stale · Darragh Keenan / Jennie Candlish
MARKET 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
79.7 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (79.7)Jockey goes well at this track (3.67x market expectation)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED
2 runners tie on net +7. The order between them below is the FIGURE tie-break, not a ranking.
1STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)net +7TIED 1/2 with FISCAL POLICY (IRE) (2nd)+ drops in class+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ backed since morning+ sharp from the stalls+ early sectional positions fit the dominant style here+ fits the winner profile on market position+ meets much weaker company by the marks
2FISCAL POLICY (IRE)net +7TIED 2/2 with STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (1st)+ drops in class+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ top-2 late speed today+ early sectional positions fit the dominant style here+ fits the winner profile on market position+ fits the winner profile on recency+ meets much weaker company by the marks− yard cold
3CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE)net +6+ race-fit (ran <=45d)+ form (top-3 LTO or recent win)+ backed since morning+ proven at trip+ fits the winner profile on market position+ fits the winner profile on recency
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
VALUE ORDER (figure votes silenced · [P79] · forward-tracked from 12 Aug) · 1. STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) · 2. FISCAL POLICY (IRE) · 3. CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) · matches the Forensic order today
COMPOSITE ORDER (FHM × FIGURE · rank blend · [P130-FHM-E]) · 1. MR KING (IRE) · 2. OBELIX · 3. IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)
SITUATION B · QUALIFIES · Forensic P1 Fiscal Policy @ 12.5 · tissue r 1.3 · favourite the morning book already had · as of 14:17 · moves with the market · paper
Optimal Conditions ProfilePEAKS · LAST 24 MONTHS · TOP 4 BY RATING
Each horse read BACKWARD from its best recent runs: the conditions on its peak days versus today, dimension by dimension. Every horse is scored out of the same 18 dimensions — grey means no evidence, and scores nothing.
how to read this section
FIT n/18 — how many of 18 conditions today match the horse’s recent peak days. Every horse is scored out of the same 18, so scores compare across the field.
✓ green = today matches its peak-day conditions · ✗ red = today differs · · grey = no evidence either way (scores 0 — shown so missing data is never mistaken for a mismatch).
Peaks — its best runs in the last 24 months, within 7lb of its best figure (max 4). A horse needs 8+ career runs to be profiled at all.
HIDDEN PEAK — a near-best run at BSP 16+ : the market missed its best day.
ΔMARK — today’s mark minus the mark it carried at its best handicap peak; 0 or less = it has peaked off this mark before.
FISCAL POLICY (IRE) 12/18 · IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) 9/18 · OBELIX 9/18 — open all 9 profiles
FISCAL POLICY (IRE)
today · OR 71 · draw 9 (high) · mid · 12.5 (steady) · James Sullivan · yard 14d cold
12/18
FIT 0.67 · 3 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Much of today matches this horse's best days. For it: it has the right side of the draw and the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the field size, the weight, yard form, the rider and the market position all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; the wrong time of year against its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 17.5 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 AW/firm-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 6.1f±220y ✓ CLASS · 4/4 C4 · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 4/4 in 77±3lb ✓ DRAW · 3/3 readable peaks with the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 2/4 summer ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 9-1±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✓ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold/hot ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 3/4 steady
ΔMARK -3HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 17.5
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 29 rated of 29 in window · 39 career)
85 · 18 Nov 24 · Wolverhampton 6.1f · Lower track · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 74 · 9-1 · off 20d · fin 1/11 · draw 4/11 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 13.8 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 15) · Jason Hart
85 · 26 Jun 25 · Newmarket 6.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 10-1 · off 25d · fin 2/11 · draw 3/11 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 17.5 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.26, n 32) · James Sullivan
84 · 12 Jul 25 · York 6.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-9 · off 16d · fin 4/18 · draw 4/18 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 8.8 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.57, n 28) · Jason Hart
83 · 1 May 25 · Chelmsford City 6.0f · Mid track · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 77 · 9-4 · off 131d · fin 1/6 · draw 2/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 7.3 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.36, n 27) · Lewis Edmunds
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)
today · OR 75 · draw 5 (mid) · mid · 8.6 (steady) · Connor Beasley · yard 14d cold
9/18
FIT 0.5 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the field size, yard form and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; stronger opposition than its peaks came against; a mark above where it peaks; the draw worked for it at its peaks and is against it today. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 firm-side/good-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/straight ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 6.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 3/4 C4 ✗ LEVEL · 1/4 in 58±4lb ✗ MARK · 3/4 in 82±3lb ✗ DRAW · 2/3 readable peaks with the bias ✗ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d ✗ SEASON · 2/4 spring ✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-9±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✓ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold ✓ JOCKEY · 1/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 3/4 fancied
ΔMARK -7
sectional signature · fsp 104.7% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 18 rated of 18 in window · 24 career)
89 · 21 Sep 24 · Newmarket 6.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-9 · off 42d · fin 2/11 · draw 11/11 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 6.0 steady · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.91, n 77) · Callum Hutchinson
87 · 3 May 25 · Thirsk 6.0f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-6 · off 34d · fin 3/10 · stall 11 (10 ran) (high; day favoured high) · BSP 3.9 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.85, n 29) · Connor Beasley
84 · 17 May 25 · Newmarket 6.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-9 · off 14d · fin 4/9 · draw 3/9 (low; no day edge) · BSP 4.6 fancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.00, n 21) · Cieren Fallon
83 · 20 Jul 26 · Ayr 7.2f · High track · Firm · C6 hcp · OR 65 · 10-5 · off 7d · vs median 58 field (6 rated) · fin 1/6 · draw 3/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 1.6 fancied · true-run, fsp 104.7% · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.16, n 26) · Daniel Tudhope
OBELIX
today · OR 81 · draw 2 (low) · held-up · 4.3 (fancied) · Jason Hart · yard 14d cold
9/18
FIT 0.5 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, a mark it has peaked off and the level of opposition it peaks against — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, freshness and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; the race may not be run the way its peaks were; different headgear to its peaks; the wrong time of year against its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 21.0 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/4 firm-side/good-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 7.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 3/4 C4 ✓ LEVEL · 1/4 in 76±4lb ✓ MARK · 2/4 in 82±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/4 readable peaks against the bias ✗ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✗ SEASON · 2/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 4/4 big (12+) ✓ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-11±4lb ✗ HEADGEAR · 3/4 hood ✗ YARD 14D · 2/4 normal ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/4 steady/unfancied
ΔMARK -1HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 21.0
sectional signature · fsp 103.3% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 fast
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 18 rated of 18 in window · 28 career)
94 · 7 Sep 24 · Haydock Park 8.2f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-11 · hood · off 23d · fin 1/13 · draw 5/13 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 8.2 steady · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.87, n 26) · Clifford Lee
91 · 12 Apr 25 · Thirsk 7.0f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 86 · 9-10 · hood · off 203d · fin 4/13 · draw 6/13 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 21.0 unfancied · Ryan Sexton
91 · 11 Jul 25 · York 7.0f · Elite track · Good to Firm · C3 hcp · OR 82 · 8-10 · hood+w · off 27d · fin 1/15 · draw 9/15 (mid; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 26.2 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.28, n 27) · Sam James
89 · 4 Jun 26 · Wetherby 7.0f · Lower track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 78 · 9-7 · hood · off 20d · vs median 76 field (14 rated) · fin 1/14 · draw 6/14 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 13.5 steady · fast-run, fsp 103.3% · yard 14d normal (A/E 0.96, n 21) · Ryan Sexton
STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)
today · OR 81 · draw 6 (mid) · prominent · 50.0 (unfancied) · M. P. Sheehy
9/18
FIT 0.5 · 4 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before and a mark it has peaked off — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the class, the time of year, the field size and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; different headgear to its peaks; today's rider has never had it at a peak. It is 2lb above the mark it peaked off. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW ✓ TRACK · 2/4 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 7.0f±220y ✓ CLASS · 4/4 C4 · LEVEL · no peak data ✓ MARK · 4/4 in 79±3lb ✓ DRAW · 2/4 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 15-45d ✓ SEASON · 3/4 autumn ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+)/mid (8-11) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-8±4lb ✗ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear · YARD 14D · 1/4 cold ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/4 fancied/steady
ΔMARK +2
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 17 rated of 17 in window · 26 career)
90 · 11 Dec 24 · Kempton Park 7.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 79 · 9-8 · off 42d · fin 2/12 · draw 4/12 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 4.6 fancied · Neil Callan
90 · 2 Sep 25 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 9-9 · off 33d · fin 1/10 · draw 10/10 (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 7.8 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.33, n 14) · Hector Crouch
90 · 20 Nov 25 · Southwell 6.1f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 9-6 · off 22d · fin 2/14 · draw 14/14 (high; no day edge) · BSP 7.1 steady · Hector Crouch
88 · 30 Oct 24 · Kempton Park 6.0f · High track · Slow (AW) · C4 hcp · OR 76 · 9-9 · off 56d · fin 1/11 · draw 9/11 (high; day favoured mid — against the bias) · BSP 4.6 fancied · Neil Callan
CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE)
today · OR 78 · draw 8 (high) · mid · 8.0 (steady) · Billy Garritty · yard 14d hot
8/18
FIT 0.44 · 4 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the weight, yard form and the market position all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; a different freshness pattern to its peaks; the wrong time of year against its peaks. Its best recent run came at BSP 24.0 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 3/4 firm-side ✓ TRACK · 3/4 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✓ TRIP · 4/4 in 8.0f±220y · CLASS · no pattern in peaks · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 3/4 in 84±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/3 readable peaks against the bias · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 <=14d ✗ SEASON · 3/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 2/4 big (12+) ✓ WEIGHT · 4/4 in 9-11±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 4/4 no headgear ✓ YARD 14D · 2/4 cold/hot ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✓ MARKET · 2/4 steady
ΔMARK +3HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 24.0
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 25 rated of 25 in window · 34 career)
89 · 17 May 25 · Thirsk 8.0f · High track · Good to Firm · C5 hcp · OR 75 · 9-9 · off 15d · fin 1/12 · draw 9/12 (high; no day edge) · BSP 6.4 steady · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.83, n 32) · Daniel Tudhope
88 · 28 Jun 25 · York 7.9f · Elite track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 84 · 9-11 · off 14d · fin 4/12 · draw 7/12 (mid; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 24.0 unfancied · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.43, n 62) · Daniel Tudhope
88 · 16 Aug 25 · Ripon 8.0f · High track · Good to Firm · C4 hcp · OR 81 · 10-1 · off 13d · fin 1/8 · draw 2/8 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 15.1 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.43, n 45) · David Nolan
88 · 25 Aug 25 · Ripon 8.0f · High track · Good to Firm · C2 hcp · OR 83 · 9-7 · off 9d · fin 3/7 · draw 7/7 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 5.3 fancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.73, n 50) · Daniel Tudhope
MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)
today · OR 77 · draw 7 (high) · mid · 20.0 (unfancied) · Darragh Keenan
8/18
FIT 0.44 · 1 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Today matches this horse's best days in places. For it: it has the right side of the draw, a mark it has peaked off and the level of opposition it peaks against — with the track grade, the direction, the class, freshness and the headgear all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different trip to its peaks; the race may not be run the way its peaks were; expected to race differently to how it peaked. Its best recent run came at BSP 75.0 — the market never saw it coming.
✗ GOING/SURF · 3/4 good-side ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Elite-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 2/4 left/right ✗ TRIP · 2/4 in 9.8f±220y ✓ CLASS · 3/4 C4 ✓ LEVEL · 2/4 in 76±4lb ✓ MARK · 2/2 in 80±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/1 readable peaks with the bias ✗ RACE SHAPE · 4/4 pace-on ✗ PACE/STYLE · 1/4 front ✓ FRESHNESS · 2/4 15-45d/<=14d ✗ SEASON · 4/4 summer ✗ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 small (<=7) ✗ WEIGHT · 2/4 in 10-2±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/4 cheekpieces+tongue-tie · YARD 14D · no pattern in peaks ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/4 steady
ΔMARK -3HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 75.0
sectional signature · fsp 100.2% avg over 4 timed peaks · pace 4 true · front early (1/1)
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 8 rated of 8 in window · 9 career)
82 · 18 Jul 26 · Ripon 9.8f · High track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 80 · 10-2 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 15d · vs median 76 field (6 rated) · fin 5/6 · draw 2/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 8.0 steady · true-run, fsp 100.2% · Silvestre De Sousa
79 · 27 Jun 26 · York 10.3f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 82 · 11-4 · off 14d · vs median 75 field (14 rated) · fin 8/14 · draw 5/14 (low; day favoured low) · BSP 75.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 105.0% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.15, n 10) · Mr Freddie Robson
79 · 3 Jul 26 · Beverley 8.5f · Mid track · Good to Firm · C6 non-hcp · 9-12 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 6d · fin 1/3 · draw 2/3 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 1.7 fancied · true-run, fsp 93.5% · yard 14d cold (A/E 0.58, n 16) · Jason Hart
78 · 2 Aug 26 · Chester 7.6f · Elite track · Good · C4 non-hcp · 8-13 · cheekpieces+tongue-tie · off 15d · fin 3/6 · draw 1/6 (small field — no draw read) · BSP 7.6 steady · true-run, front early, fsp 102.2% · yard 14d hot (A/E 2.81, n 16) · Jack Callan
PACKETOFBISCUITS
today · OR 72 · draw 4 (mid) · held-up · 40.0 (unfancied) · Finlay Bassett
7/18
FIT 0.39 · 3 unknowable
from 4 peaks
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before, the level of opposition it peaks against and the headgear it peaks in — with the track grade, the direction, the trip and the field size all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; the race may not be run the way its peaks were; a different freshness pattern to its peaks. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 4/4 AW ✓ TRACK · 2/4 Mid-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 3/4 left ✓ TRIP · 3/4 in 7.1f±220y ✗ CLASS · 3/4 C5 ✓ LEVEL · 1/4 in 73±4lb · MARK · no pattern in peaks ✓ DRAW · 2/4 readable peaks against the bias ✗ RACE SHAPE · 1/4 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✗ FRESHNESS · 3/4 <=14d ✗ SEASON · 2/4 spring ✓ FIELD SIZE · 3/4 mid (8-11) ✗ WEIGHT · 3/4 in 9-9±4lb ✓ HEADGEAR · 3/4 blinkers · YARD 14D · 1/4 hot ✗ JOCKEY · 0/4 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 2/4 steady
ΔMARK -3
sectional signature · fsp 103.5% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (4 qualifying · 27 rated of 27 in window · 27 career)
84 · 11 Mar 26 · Southwell 7.1f · Mid track · Standard (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 75 · 9-9 · blinkers · off 11d · vs median 73 field (9 rated) · fin 2/9 · draw 2/9 (low; day favoured high — against the bias) · BSP 4.2 fancied · true-run, fsp 103.5% · P. J. McDonald
80 · 20 Feb 26 · Southwell 7.1f · Mid track · Slow (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 66 · 9-5 · blinkers · off 10d · fin 1/12 · draw 9/12 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 11.8 steady · P. J. McDonald
79 · 2 Oct 24 · Kempton Park 6.0f · High track · Standard (AW) · C4 non-hcp · 9-4 · fin 4/11 · draw 6/11 (mid; day favoured mid) · BSP 200.0 unfancied · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.46, n 14) · Luke Morris
79 · 5 Apr 25 · Wolverhampton 7.2f · Lower track · Slow (AW) · C5 hcp · OR 71 · 9-10 · blinkers · off 10d · fin 1/11 · draw 11/11 (high; day favoured high) · BSP 8.6 steady · Rhys Clutterbuck
MR KING (IRE)
today · OR 77 · draw 1 (low) · held-up · 6.8 (steady) · David Allan
6/18
FIT 0.33 · 4 unknowable
from 1 peak
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: the freshness pattern of its peaks — with the track grade, the direction, the trip, the time of year and the weight all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a different class to its peaks; a mark above where it peaks; the wrong side of the draw. Its best recent run came at BSP 17.5 — the market never saw it coming. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 1/1 firm-side ✓ TRACK · 1/1 High-tier · today High (#11) ✓ HANDED · 1/1 left ✓ TRIP · 1/1 in 8.0f±220y ✗ CLASS · 1/1 C2 · LEVEL · no peak data ✗ MARK · 1/1 in 90±3lb ✗ DRAW · 1/1 mid · RACE SHAPE · no peak data · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) ✓ FRESHNESS · 1/1 <=14d ✓ SEASON · 1/1 autumn ✗ FIELD SIZE · 1/1 big (12+) ✓ WEIGHT · 1/1 in 9-8±4lb ✗ HEADGEAR · 1/1 tongue-tie · YARD 14D · 1/1 normal ✗ JOCKEY · 0/1 peaks under today's rider ✗ MARKET · 1/1 unfancied
ΔMARK -13HIDDEN PEAK · BSP 17.5
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (1 qualifying · 17 rated of 18 in window · 19 career)
96 · 21 Sep 24 · Ayr 8.0f · High track · Good to Firm · C2 hcp · OR 90 · 9-8 · tongue-tie · off 7d · fin 3/14 · draw 7/14 (mid; no day edge) · BSP 17.5 unfancied · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.06, n 40) · Callum Rodriguez
NYMAN (IRE)
today · OR 70 · draw 3 (low) · mid · 4.5 (fancied) · Joanna Mason · yard 14d hot
6/18
FIT 0.33 · 9 unknowable
from 2 peaks
Only parts of today look like this horse's best days. For it: it has produced its best from bad draws before and the level of opposition it peaks against — with the track grade, the trip, the field size and the rider all matching its peak days. Against: its best has come on different ground; a mark above where it peaks; the race may not be run the way its peaks were. Unread: running style.
✗ GOING/SURF · 2/2 good-side ✓ TRACK · 1/2 Elite-tier · today High (#11) · HANDED · no pattern in peaks ✓ TRIP · 2/2 in 7.0f±220y · CLASS · no pattern in peaks ✓ LEVEL · 1/2 in 81±4lb ✗ MARK · 2/2 in 78±3lb ✓ DRAW · 1/2 readable peaks against the bias ✗ RACE SHAPE · 1/2 pace-on · PACE/STYLE · no peak data · course favours prominent (33% of winners) · FRESHNESS · no pattern in peaks · SEASON · no pattern in peaks ✓ FIELD SIZE · 2/2 mid (8-11) · WEIGHT · no pattern in peaks · HEADGEAR · no pattern in peaks · YARD 14D · no pattern in peaks ✓ JOCKEY · 1/2 peaks under today's rider · MARKET · no pattern in peaks
ΔMARK -8
sectional signature · fsp 99.7% avg over 1 timed peak · pace 1 true
peak runs · within 7lb of best, last 24 months (2 qualifying · 11 rated of 11 in window · 11 career)
88 · 1 Nov 25 · Newmarket 7.0f · Elite track · Good · C4 hcp · OR 78 · 9-9 · off 22d · fin 1/8 · stall 9 (8 ran) (high; day favoured high) · BSP 7.2 steady · yard 14d hot (A/E 1.29, n 10) · Joanna Mason
83 · 7 May 26 · Redcar 8.0f · Lower track · Good · C3 hcp · OR 79 · 8-12 · cheekpieces · off 14d · vs median 81 field (9 rated) · fin 4/9 · draw 7/9 (high; day favoured low — against the bias) · BSP 23.0 unfancied · true-run, fsp 99.7% · yard 14d normal (A/E 1.11, n 13) · Jason Hart
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK graded 44% · miss 39% · n=952
ON THE MEASURED READS
OBELIX — tends to burn early and empty out and a yard out of form. STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge OBELIX lacks: sharp from the stalls.
ON RACE SHAPE
NYMAN (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
Two lenses, two questions — the reads ask who measures closest; the shape asks who profits if the race falls apart.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours. Measured: editorial-family reads sit in the generic bucket that grades 42.0% hit v 48.1% for horse-specific measured reads (C7 gate) — argument, weighted below the measurements.
Worth A Second Look graded 28% · miss 72% · n=1046 · null 50%
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)  FIGURE #4
Michael Dods's runners stepping up in class win 10.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Michael Dods's runners above their last winning mark win 15.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
4 / 4Horse Profilesevery runner in full — career, conditions, clock and market
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1 OBELIX HELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR 81 · FHM 70 A● -11 · Jason Hart / Julie Camacho
MARKET 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
85.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
77SPEED FIGURE · #1 OF 9 READ
5.64
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 18% chance
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1.7pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 95
Speed Figure (FSF)
77 latest (12 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance · 7f
2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (2.04)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield-closer — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Held up)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.88% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #5 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands; run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 91 (511d ago · 7f · Class 4) — 0.3pts ABOVE the projected 90.7. 34% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 90 days.
Record on today’s going
never raced on Good to Soft
never raced on softer than good ground
Record at this track
0 wins from 4 runs, 0 top-3 at Thirsk
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Julie Camachohere 5/59 · 8% · A/E 1.08on Good to Soft 7/74 · 9% · A/E 0.95on softer than good ground 11/140 · 8% · A/E 0.81Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 4th in a Class 4 0-80 handicap off 81 (Beverley, 12 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 81 is the top of the band. Same band as last time.
Course scale · class context
steps up 16 places on the course scale (BEVERLEY 27th → THIRSK 11th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Sits 4lb above today's median (OR 81 v field 77) · a near-level field move (+0lb) on last time (BEVERLEY · 12 Aug 26) · on our own book 0lb above the field (FHM 70 v field FHM median 70.1)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
4thC4 · 7f75yrated 8513thC3 · 7frated 695thC4 · 7f127yrated 825thC4 · 7frated 861stC4 · 7frated 89
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for OBELIXbest 95needs 90.7–9112 Apr 25 · TFR 91 · 7f · Good · C43 May 25 · TFR 76 · 1m · Good · C217 May 25 · TFR 87 · 1m · Good to Firm · C314 Jun 25 · TFR 68 · 1m176y · Good to Firm · C411 Jul 25 · TFR 91 · 7f · Good to Firm · C331 Jul 25 · TFR 81 · 1m143y · Standard · C316 Aug 25 · TFR 62 · 7f · Good to Firm · C27 Sep 25 · TFR 78 · 7f191y · Good to Firm · C48 Oct 25 · TFR 86 · 7f · Standard · C427 Oct 25 · TFR 74 · 7f13y · Slow · C415 May 26 · TFR 66 · 7f · Good · C44 Jun 26 · TFR 89 · 7f · Good to Firm · C420 Jun 26 · TFR 86 · 7f · Good to Firm · C411 Jul 26 · TFR 82 · 7f127y · Good · C41 Aug 26 · TFR 69 · 7f · Good · C312 Aug 26 · TFR 85 · 7f75y · Good to Firm · C412 Apr 2512 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 15 May 26: 60 · 4 Jun 26: 70 · 20 Jun 26: 66 · 11 Jul 26: 66 · 1 Aug 26: 65 · 12 Aug 26: 77
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Julie Camacho · 1063 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 3 of 4 reverse in 2026
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆45/30514.8%1.324/805.0%0.73
In fields of 8-1141/40610.1%1.009/1297.0%0.82
Above their last winning mark ⇆34/22515.1%1.127/858.2%0.90
Over 7-8f trips ⇆33/3329.9%1.076/758.0%0.93
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample · the book's thin gate)3/456.7%0.972/1315.4%1.08
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 91 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 511d ago · 7f · Class 4) at/around today's trip, clears the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 11/52 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.93 (n153, raw 0.88) · with this yard: A/E 0.86 (n15, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 1READ 4VAL 8POW 5MKT 12 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~3% (model 3% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path4.34.3 (10:45→14:15, steady, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 97.9% v course avg 100.6% (−2.7) · top speed 40.9mph v 40.5 (+0.4)
Eye-catcherlast run (BSP 4.7): the comment reads “hampered” — the visible hard-luck profile is historically OVERBET next start
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.37m (n 24) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Receiptslast read Thirsk 1 Aug 26: figure ✗ · pace ✓ · energy ≈ · connections ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power5th of 9
56pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 97.9% is vs its own average · −1.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)
Stride length3rd of 9
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (+0.01 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.08 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Aug 26Beverley7f75yGd/Frm44th8577748176.5Fast early40.0-0.2391.4+0.09
1 Aug 26Thirsk7fGood313th6965698284Fast early41.3+1.22101.7+0.16
11 Jul 26Chester7f127yGood45th8266638377Fast early40.6-0.2092.6+0.14
20 Jun 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm45th8666778383—41.3+0.74103.2+0.47
4 Jun 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm41st8970847876Fast early41.9+0.93103.3+0.34
15 May 26York7fGood412th6660528078True40.1-0.0195.1+0.52
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
12 Aug 265.694.70−17%2nd of 104th£46.3k£221k21%4.00ran to expectation
1 Aug 2621.6024.00+11%8th of 1513th£7.5k£271k3%38.00underran the market
11 Jul 264.304.47+4%2nd of 95th£46.4k£249k19%3.55underran the market
20 Jun 266.558.80+34%4th of 115th£15.9k£139k11%3.10ran to expectation
4 Jun 2610.6713.53+27%5th of 141st£13.8k£302k5%19.00outran the market
15 May 2623.3417.50−25%8th of 2212th£16.6k£258k6%9.40underran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
12 Aug 26 denied a run, had to switch, raced too keenly, kept on  ·  1 Aug 26 never on terms  ·  11 Jul 26 weakened  ·  20 Jun 26 finished strongly, never nearer (better than result)  ·  4 Jun 26 had to switch, kept on  ·  15 May 26 denied a run, never on terms
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.55fast2f+0.96fast3f+0.90fast4f+0.87fast5f+0.37par6f+0.40very slow7f+0.43very slow
Timed runs 15 May 26 to 12 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
MR KING (IRE) · 3 meetings · n/a
11 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 12th, 6.15L ahead · OR 82 v 82 · race median 85 (today 77) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
14 Jun 25 · 1m177y · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 5th, 6.85L behind · OR 84 v 85 · race median 81 (today 77) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
NYMAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 12th vs 17th, 2.6L ahead · OR 80 v 79 · race median 78 (today 77)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (read through WAR HOWL, TATTIE BOGLE, STARLINER, THE GREEN MAN) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) (read through MIAMI MATRIX, BELL SHOT, BRIGHTON BOY, ANDESITE) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs FISCAL POLICY (IRE) (read through FIFTY NIFTY, ORNE, ANOTHER INVESTMENT, TOLSTOY) ≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs PACKETOFBISCUITS (read through WAR HOWL, QUEST FOR FUN, ENOLA GREY, KING'S SCHOOL) ≈ level — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
3lb above its last winning mark (81 today vs 78)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (85.0)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 2.04)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)
LTO comment
“mid-field, had to wait for gap over 1f out, badly hampered, lost place, rallied final 1f”
#2 MR KING (IRE) HELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 77 · FHM 76 A● -1 · David Allan / Geoffrey Harker
MARKET 6.8 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 7−
83.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
73SPEED FIGURE · #3 OF 9 READ
5.79
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 17% chance
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1.7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; one-paced late — 4th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
83.3 · ranked #2 here · career best 96
Speed Figure (FSF)
61 latest (22 Aug 26) · best 73 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance · 7f
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (8.94)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield-closer — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Held up)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.43% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #4 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 88 (516d ago · 1m · Class 3) — 2.7pts short of the projected 90.7. 70% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (30% won without).
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 on Good to Soft
0 wins from 4 runs, 0 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
1 win from 2 runs, 1 top-3 at Thirsk
1 win from 1 run, 1 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Geoffrey Harkerhere 3/26 · 12% · A/E 1.31on Good to Soft 2/17 · 12% · A/E 1.12on softer than good ground 4/35 · 11% · A/E 1.37Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 5th in a Class 4 0-80 handicap off 78 (Redcar, 22 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 77 is 3 lb under the 80 ceiling. Same band as last time.
Course scale · class context
steps up 20 places on the course scale (REDCAR 31st → THIRSK 11th) — a real rise in class regardless of the race grade
Field strength · class context
Sits level with today's median (OR 77 v field 77) · a near-level field move (+2lb) on last time (REDCAR · 22 Aug 26) · on our own book 6lb above the field (FHM 76 v field FHM median 70.1)
Headgear
First-time hood (none of it appears on the peak runs printed in the Optimal Conditions Profile)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
5thC4 · 1mrated 828thC4 · 7frated 851stC4 · 7frated 837thC4 · 7f173yrated 636thC3 · 1mrated 78
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MR KING (IRE)best 96needs 90.7–917 Apr 25 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good · C33 May 25 · TFR 80 · 1m · Good · C215 May 25 · TFR 83 · 7f191y · Good · C225 Jun 25 · TFR 63 · 7f174y · Soft · C411 Jul 25 · TFR 73 · 7f · Good to Firm · C326 Jul 25 · TFR 87 · 7f191y · Good to Firm · C410 Aug 25 · TFR 82 · 1m37y · Good to Firm · C411 Oct 25 · TFR 53 · 1m2f56y · Good · C4 · off-trip7 May 26 · TFR 78 · 1m · Good · C330 May 26 · TFR 63 · 7f173y · Good to Firm · C416 Jun 26 · TFR 83 · 7f · Good · C424 Jul 26 · TFR 85 · 7f · Good to Firm · C422 Aug 26 · TFR 82 · 1m · Good · C47 Apr 2522 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 11 Oct 25: 55 · 7 May 26: 65 · 30 May 26: 56 · 16 Jun 26: 73 · 24 Jul 26: 71 · 22 Aug 26: 61
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Geoffrey Harker · 204 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 13.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: changing jockey from the last run
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows
At Thirsk2/1811.1%1.021/812.5%1.04
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 7 reverse in 2026
Coming back after 8 to 14 days2/395.1%0.880/100.0%0.90
Above their last winning mark1/352.9%0.840/180.0%0.84
At this time of year (Q3)3/605.0%0.870/190.0%0.83
In fields of 8-115/895.6%0.852/267.7%0.90
In Class 4-5 company ⇆6/758.0%1.021/205.0%0.95
On turf8/1117.2%0.973/397.7%0.91
Over 7-8f trips5/955.3%0.863/378.1%0.92
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 88 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 516d ago · 1m · Class 3) is 3pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
David Allan · last 14 days: 4/29 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.85 (n206, raw 0.77) · with this yard: A/E 0.88 (n28, raw 0.39)
ConsensusFIG 2READ 5VAL 9POW 4MKT 31 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~9% (model 11% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path6.66.8 (10:45→14:15, steady, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 99.4% v course avg 100.6% (−1.1) · top speed 40.1mph v 40.5 (−0.4)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.36m (n 19) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Course form1 career win at this track
Receiptslast read Redcar 22 Aug 26: figure ✗ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+0.50 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.31s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power4th of 9
57pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.4% is vs its own average · −0.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length2nd of 9
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (+0.07 m) · +0.14 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Aug 26Redcar1mGood45th8261707875True39.7+0.38101.4+0.23
24 Jul 26York7fGd/Frm48th8571797875True40.6+0.1397.9+0.30
16 Jun 26Thirsk7fGood41st8373877577Fast early40.0+0.71104.1+0.24
30 May 26Carlisle7f173yGd/Frm47th6356497877.5True38.4+0.95100.1+0.32
7 May 26Redcar1mGood36th7865718081True41.8+0.9498.2+0.55
11 Oct 25York1m2f56yGood416th5355518181True38.0-0.1195.0+0.21
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
22 Aug 265.405.12−5%2nd of 105th£27.6k£136k20%3.85underran the market
24 Jul 2621.7934.00+56%12th of 188th£4.2k£164k3%20.00outran the market
16 Jun 2615.1622.00+45%8th of 101st£8.8k£179k5%29.00outran the market
30 May 268.479.81+16%4th of 107th£14.5k£111k13%8.20underran the market
7 May 2628.7027.00−6%7th of 96th£7.9k£274k3%20.00ran to expectation
11 Oct 2531.2265.16+109%16th of 1916th£4.3k£245k2%11.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 1 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
22 Aug 26 late headway, never on terms  ·  24 Jul 26 finished strongly  ·  16 Jun 26 raced too keenly, kept on  ·  30 May 26 slow away, never on terms  ·  7 May 26 weakened, outpaced  ·  11 Oct 25 weakened ✓ in-play money believed it
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.56par2f+0.55par3f+0.70slow4f+0.61par5f+0.53slow6f+0.55par7f+0.33par1m+0.55par
Timed runs 11 Oct 25 to 22 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
OBELIX · 3 meetings · n/a
11 Jul 25 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 12th vs 1st, 6.15L behind · OR 82 v 82 · race median 85 (today 77) · stale — 14m ago, not in the read
CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
11 Oct 25 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 16th vs 8th, 9L behind · OR 81 v 81 · race median 81 (today 77)
NYMAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
7 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 6th vs 4th, 2.3L behind · OR 80 v 79 · race median 81 (today 77)
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-6.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (read through INTERVENTION, GRESSINGTON) ≈ +5.5L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (read through DOCUMENTING, YAASER, LIAMARTY DREAMS, ALZAHIR) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs FISCAL POLICY (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, ROYAL ACCORD, PRIAPOS, FIFTY NIFTY) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) (read through DOUBLE PARKED, POET'S DAWN, THEME PARK, SPIRIT CATCHER) ≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayRated #2 in this field (83.3)Only 3 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)
LTO comment
“waited with, ridden and headway over 1f out, stayed on final 1f”
#3 MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) MID
DRAW 7 · OR 77 · FHM 61 A● -16 stale · Darragh Keenan / Jennie Candlish
MARKET 20 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
79.7 FORMLAB FIGURE
65SPEED FIGURE · #9 OF 9 READ
7.93
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 13% chance
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 5.3pts off the top, early sectional positions fit the dominant style here; one-paced late — 6th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
79.7 · ranked #3 here · career best 82
Speed Figure (FSF)
58 latest (2 Aug 26) · best 65 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
77 · no win on record
Record at today's distance · 7f
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
34
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent and weakens — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 99.21% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #6 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 82 (49d ago · 1m1f170y · Class 4) — 8.7pts short of the projected 90.7. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (47% won without).
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 on Good to Soft
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
never raced at Thirsk
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Jennie Candlishhere 1/11 · 9% · A/E 1.21on Good to Soft 5/47 · 11% · A/E 0.98on softer than good ground 10/81 · 12% · A/E 1.05Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 3rd in a Class 4 0-85 non-handicap (Chester, 2 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 77 is 3 lb under the 80 ceiling.
Course scale · class context
drops 6 places on the course scale (CHESTER 5th → THIRSK 11th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap today — cheekpieces, tongue strap worn before on the peak runs printed in the Optimal Conditions Profile (last 24 months), so not all of it is first-time; only the combination is new
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
3rdC4 · 7f127yrated 785thC4 · 1m1f170yrated 821stC6 · 1m100yrated 798thC4 · 1m2f56yrated 7917thC3 · 7frated 56
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE)needs 90.7–91best 826 May 26 · TFR 70 · 7f · Good · C330 May 26 · TFR 63 · 7f · Good · C213 Jun 26 · TFR 56 · 7f · Good · C327 Jun 26 · TFR 79 · 1m2f56y · Good · C4 · off-trip3 Jul 26 · TFR 79 · 1m100y · Good to Firm · C618 Jul 26 · TFR 82 · 1m1f170y · Good · C4 · off-trip2 Aug 26 · TFR 78 · 7f127y · Good · C46 May 262 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 30 May 26: 57 · 13 Jun 26: 52 · 27 Jun 26: 53 · 3 Jul 26: 65 · 18 Jul 26: 60 · 2 Aug 26: 58
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jennie Candlish · 563 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: with a runner returning from 60+ days off, changing jockey from the last run, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 1 hold in both windows
At this time of year (Q3) ✦18/13213.6%1.2112/5223.1%1.26
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026
In fields of 8-11 ⇆28/21013.3%1.106/886.8%0.81
In Class 4-5 company ⇆29/18415.8%1.278/1008.0%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk ⇆ (small sample · the book's thin gate)1/520.0%1.040/60.0%0.94
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 82 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 49d ago · 1m1f170y · Class 4) is 9pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
Darragh Keenan · last 14 days: 0/24 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.14 (n11, raw 3.67) · with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n36, raw 1.58)
ConsensusFIG 3READ 6VAL 4POW 6MKT 70 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~39% (model 50% through the measured curve · last 8 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path19.520 (10:45→14:15, steady, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 99.2% v course avg 100.6% (−1.4) · top speed 39.5mph v 40.5 (−1.0)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.13m (n 9) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Receiptslast read Chester 2 Aug 26: figure ✓ · connections ✓ · pace ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power6th of 9
55pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.2% is vs its own average · −0.6 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length8th of 9
7.12 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (−0.24 m) · −0.17 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Aug 26Chester7f127yGood43rd7858———True39.4-0.12102.2+0.00
18 Jul 26Ripon1m1f170yGood45th8260648076True39.3+1.06100.2—
3 Jul 26Beverley1m100yGd/Frm61st7965———True39.8+0.0793.5-0.19
27 Jun 26York1m2f56yGood48th7953578275True38.8+0.17105.0+0.22
13 Jun 26York7fGood317th5652568587True40.1+0.0097.8+0.29
30 May 26Chester7fGood211th6357498891True39.0-0.0596.5+0.37
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
2 Aug 2613.887.56−45%4th of 63rd£29.1k£258k11%4.00ran to expectation
18 Jul 269.188.04−12%4th of 65th£24.1k£215k11%3.00ran to expectation
3 Jul 261.591.66+4%1st of 31st£100.5k£161k62%1.84ran to expectation
27 Jun 26132.3275.00−43%14th of 148th£3.7k£211k2%50.00outran the market
13 Jun 26311.59667.94+114%19th of 1917th£1.8k£451k0%990.00ran to expectation
30 May 26153.33107.40−30%11th of 1111th£2.9k£286k1%140.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 1 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
2 Aug 26 no extra  ·  18 Jul 26 raced too keenly  ·  3 Jul 26 kept on  ·  27 Jun 26 raced too keenly, never on terms  ·  13 Jun 26 never on terms  ·  30 May 26 slow away, never on terms
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledvery slow2fledvery slow3fledslow4fledpar5fledfast6fledfast7f+0.05fast1m+0.42fast
Timed runs 30 May 26 to 2 Aug 26. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs NYMAN (IRE) (read through A WAR EAGLE, ANDESITE, DOUBLE PARKED, SPIRIT GENIE) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (read through BRIGHTON BOY, ROMAN DRAGON, HUSCAL, BELL SHOT) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs OBELIX (read through MIAMI MATRIX, BELL SHOT, BRIGHTON BOY, ANDESITE) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MR KING (IRE) (read through DOUBLE PARKED, POET'S DAWN, THEME PARK, SPIRIT CATCHER) ≈ -1L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 4 todayRated #3 in this field (79.7)Only 4 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (3.67x market expectation)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but its run-style (Mid) holds a small share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix)
LTO comment
“led, pushed along 2f out, headed entering final 1f, weakened final 100 yds”
#4 IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) MID
DRAW 5 · OR 75 · FHM 73 A● -2 · Connor Beasley / Michael Dods
MARKET backed 9.4 → 8.6 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
79.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
69SPEED FIGURE · =4 OF 9 READ
7.34
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 14% chance
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 5.7pts off the top, backed since the morning; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
79.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 89
Speed Figure (FSF)
59 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 69 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 72
Record at today's distance · 7f
3 wins from 6 tries · beats market expectation (2.18)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · among the slowest in its race
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.94% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #7 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 87 (490d ago · 6f · Class 4) — 3.7pts short of the projected 90.7. 70% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (30% won without).
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 2 runs, 1 top-3 on Good to Soft
0 wins from 3 runs, 1 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
0 wins from 3 runs, 1 top-3 at Thirsk
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Michael Dodshere 18/175 · 10% · A/E 1.04on Good to Soft 12/138 · 9% · A/E 0.88on softer than good ground 27/286 · 9% · A/E 0.97Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 10th in a Class 5 0-75 handicap off 75 (Doncaster, 15 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 75 is 5 lb under the 80 ceiling. A rise of 5 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Sits 2lb below today's median (OR 75 v field 77) · a field 5lb stronger than last time (median 72 then) (DONCASTER · 15 Aug 26) · on our own book 3lb above the field (FHM 73 v field FHM median 70.1)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
10thC5 · 7frated 741stC4 · 7f50yrated 811stC6 · 7f50yrated 831stC6 · 7f50yrated 755thC5 · 7frated 61
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE)needs 90.7–91best 8930 Mar 25 · TFR 71 · 7f · Good · C43 May 25 · TFR 87 · 6f · Good · C417 May 25 · TFR 84 · 6f · Good to Firm · C431 May 25 · TFR 82 · 5f · Standard · C4 · off-trip26 Jun 25 · TFR 65 · 5f · Good to Firm · C319 Jul 25 · TFR 54 · 6f · Good to Soft · C46 Aug 25 · TFR 48 · 6f · Good · C428 Aug 25 · TFR 76 · 5f · Slow · C5 · off-trip21 Sep 25 · TFR 68 · 5f · Standard · C5 · off-trip20 Oct 25 · TFR 49 · 6f20y · Slow · C518 May 26 · TFR 47 · 5f · Good · C5 · off-trip5 Jun 26 · TFR 55 · 6f · Good · C61 Jul 26 · TFR 61 · 7f · Good to Firm · C513 Jul 26 · TFR 75 · 7f50y · Good to Firm · C620 Jul 26 · TFR 83 · 7f50y · Firm · C627 Jul 26 · TFR 81 · 7f50y · Good to Firm · C415 Aug 26 · TFR 74 · 7f · Good to Firm · C530 Mar 2515 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 5 Jun 26: 58 · 1 Jul 26: 63 · 13 Jul 26: 63 · 20 Jul 26: 63 · 27 Jul 26: 69 · 15 Aug 26: 59
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Dods · 1457 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 3 of 4 reverse in 2026
Over 7-8f trips ⇆38/4059.4%0.9920/11617.2%1.39
Above their last winning mark ✦35/33510.4%1.0218/11415.8%1.17
In Class 4-5 company ⇆58/6229.3%0.9527/20513.2%1.16
In fields of 8-11 ⇆55/5929.3%0.9123/18312.6%1.11
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
At Thirsk ⇆13/11511.3%1.154/567.1%0.84
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 87 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 490d ago · 6f · Class 4) is 4pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
Connor Beasley · last 14 days: 7/46 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.83 (n206, raw 0.76) · with this yard: A/E 0.84 (n804, raw 0.82)
ConsensusFIG 4READ 7VAL 5POW 7MKT 50 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~9% (model 11% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path9.48.6 (10:45→14:15, backed, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 102.9% v course avg 100.6% (+2.4) · top speed 41.5mph v 40.5 (+1.0)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.24m (n 24) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Receiptslast read Doncaster 15 Aug 26: figure ✗ · pace ✗ · h2h ✓ · connections ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
+0.31 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power7th of 9
53pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 102.9% is vs its own average · +3.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.16× chance (9,385 runs)
Stride length7th of 9
7.26 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (−0.10 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.03 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Aug 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm510th7459667572Slow early41.5+0.02106.9+0.27
27 Jul 26Ayr7f50yGd/Frm41st8169847272True42.2+0.83103.0+0.00
20 Jul 26Ayr7f50yFirm61st8363756558True40.8+0.15104.7+0.29
13 Jul 26Ayr7f50yGd/Frm61st7563696056True42.2+0.24107.1+0.49
1 Jul 26Thirsk7fGd/Frm55th6163716264.5True40.2-0.01103.8+0.39
5 Jun 26Thirsk6fGood68th5558536462Fast early42.0+0.6292.2+0.28
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
15 Aug 267.127.60+7%2nd of 1210th£20.6k£161k13%6.60underran the market
27 Jul 262.132.56+20%1st of 51st£83.7k£206k41%11.00ran to expectation
20 Jul 261.801.65−9%1st of 61st£178.8k£264k68%1.15ran to expectation
13 Jul 267.3411.32+54%5th of 91st£17.8k£237k7%16.50outran the market
1 Jul 2613.1113.72+5%6th of 105th£10.2k£169k6%17.00ran to expectation
5 Jun 266.695.20−22%2nd of 108th£31.8k£167k19%2.30underran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
15 Aug 26 raced too keenly, weakened  ·  27 Jul 26 late headway  ·  20 Jul 26 clean  ·  13 Jul 26 finished strongly  ·  1 Jul 26 late headway  ·  5 Jun 26 raced too keenly, weakened
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.61par2f+0.55very slow3f+0.55very slow4f+0.54slow5f+0.45fast6f+0.34very fast7f+0.72fast
Timed runs 5 Jun 26 to 15 Aug 26. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
FISCAL POLICY (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
17 May 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 2nd, 0.6L behind · OR 82 v 78 · race median 82 (today 77) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
NYMAN (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
15 Aug 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 10th vs 9th, 1.5L behind · OR 75 v 72 · race median 72 (today 77)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (read through WAY TO DUBAI, ABERAMA GOLD, SECRET GUEST, REBEL PATH) ≈ -4L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MR KING (IRE) (read through DOCUMENTING, YAASER, LIAMARTY DREAMS, ALZAHIR) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs OBELIX (read through WAR HOWL, TATTIE BOGLE, STARLINER, THE GREEN MAN) ≈ -3L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs PACKETOFBISCUITS (read through WAR HOWL, GRABAJABBA, SIR GARFIELD, BELLA BISBEE) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
3lb above its last winning mark (75 today vs 72)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayStable cold this week — 0 wins from 14 runsRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“in touch, weakened 1f out”
#5 STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 81 · FHM 71 A● -10 · M. P. Sheehy / Fionn McSharry
MARKET backed 55 → 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 7−
78.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
68SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 9 READ
13.97
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 7% chance
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 7pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 90
Speed Figure (FSF)
64 latest (22 Aug 26) · best 68 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 80
Record at today's distance · 7f
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.6s)
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: front-runner (cooked late) — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Prominent)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 99.43% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #9 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
suits today's track (run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 90 (368d ago · 6f15y · Class 4) — within 2pts of the projected 90.7. 59% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it inside 12 months.
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 on Good to Soft
0 wins from 2 runs, 0 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
never raced at Thirsk
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Fionn McSharryhere 0/5 · 0% · too few for A/Eon Good to Soft 0/8 · 0% · too few for A/Eon softer than good ground 0/16 · 0% · A/E 0.00Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 10th in a Class 3 0-95 handicap off 82 (Chester, 22 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 81 is the top of the band. A drop of 15 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Course scale · class context
drops 6 places on the course scale (CHESTER 5th → THIRSK 11th) — much easier company than the bare class suggests
Field strength · class context
Sits 4lb above today's median (OR 81 v field 77) · a field 10lb weaker than last time (median 87 then) (CHESTER · 22 Aug 26) · on our own book 1lb above the field (FHM 71 v field FHM median 70.1)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
10thC3 · 6f17yrated 782ndC4 · 6f16yrated 879thC3 · 6frated 683rdC4 · 6frated 886thC4 · 6f16yrated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for STANLEY SPENCER (IRE)needs 90.7–91best 9016 Jun 25 · TFR 66 · 6f11y · Good to Firm · C330 Jun 25 · TFR 83 · 6f20y · Slow · C431 Jul 25 · TFR 74 · 6f20y · Standard · C42 Sep 25 · TFR 90 · 6f15y · Standard · C424 Sep 25 · TFR 82 · 7f · Slow · C429 Oct 25 · TFR 82 · 6f · Standard · C420 Nov 25 · TFR 90 · 6f15y · Standard · C41 Jan 26 · TFR 83 · 6f15y · Standard · C429 Jan 26 · TFR 73 · 6f · Standard · C420 Feb 26 · TFR 84 · 6f16y · Slow · C44 Mar 26 · TFR 88 · 6f · Slow · C428 Mar 26 · TFR 68 · 6f · Standard · C32 Apr 26 · TFR 87 · 6f16y · Standard · C422 Aug 26 · TFR 78 · 6f17y · Good to Soft · C316 Jun 2522 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 29 Jan 26: 59 · 20 Feb 26: 66 · 4 Mar 26: 68 · 28 Mar 26: 59 · 2 Apr 26: 63 · 22 Aug 26: 64
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Fionn McSharry · 127 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.9 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 1 reverse in 2026
Over 7-8f trips ⇆4/468.7%0.991/1010.0%1.02
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 4 of 7 reverse in 2026
Coming back after 8 to 14 days2/219.5%0.990/40.0%0.96
Above their last winning mark ⇆8/2828.6%1.230/90.0%0.91
At this time of year (Q3)2/355.7%0.920/110.0%0.90
On turf3/446.8%0.990/170.0%0.85
In Class 4-5 company ⇆7/5612.5%1.111/224.5%0.86
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆7/5911.9%1.072/238.7%0.93
In fields of 8-11 ⇆8/4916.3%1.102/229.1%0.94
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample · the book's thin gate)0/30.0%0.970/20.0%0.98
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 90 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 368d ago · 6f15y · Class 4) is 1pt short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
M. P. Sheehy · last 14 days: 0/11 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.95 (n5, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 5READ 1VAL 1POW 9MKT 92 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~13% (model 15% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path5550 (10:45→14:15, backed, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 99.4% v course avg 100.6% (−1.1) · top speed 40.3mph v 40.5 (−0.2)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.28m (n 22) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Time of year3 of 4 career wins have come in this window of the season SEASONAL FLAG — this profile wins 15.7% (A/E 1.08, 2023-25) and 14.2% (A/E 1.11, 2026 holdout); persistently under-priced.
Receiptslast read Chester 22 Aug 26: figure ≈ · energy ✗ · connections ✗ · class ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-0.33 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power9th of 9
45pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 99.4% is vs its own average · −0.4 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance (13,862 runs)
Stride length6th of 9
7.27 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (−0.09 m) · about level with today’s field (−0.02 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
22 Aug 26Chester6f17yGd/Sft310th7864728287True40.8-0.0796.6+0.05
2 Apr 26Southwell6f16yStd42nd8763758277.5True39.6-0.24100.8+0.06
28 Mar 26Kempton Park6fStd39th6859608286True40.4-0.6597.6+0.03
4 Mar 26Kempton Park6fSlow43rd8868728178True39.8-0.63102.2+0.00
20 Feb 26Southwell6f16ySlow46th8466678283True39.8-0.35102.4+0.27
29 Jan 26Chelmsford City6fStd48th7359638383Fast early41.3-0.0397.0-0.13
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
22 Aug 2696.02160.00+67%11th of 1110th£3.0k£192k2%150.00ran to expectation
2 Apr 265.346.80+27%3rd of 102nd£37.2k£269k14%3.10ran to expectation
28 Mar 2626.6145.33+70%8th of 119th£4.8k£222k2%30.00ran to expectation
4 Mar 269.0714.87+64%6th of 83rd£13.0k£211k6%5.00outran the market
20 Feb 268.2110.09+23%4th of 126th£10.8k£122k9%—ran to expectation
29 Jan 265.385.40+0%2nd of 98th£23.0k£169k14%3.50underran the market
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
22 Aug 26 never on terms  ·  2 Apr 26 kept on  ·  28 Mar 26 hampered, weakened  ·  4 Mar 26 clean  ·  20 Feb 26 kept on  ·  29 Jan 26 hampered
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.55par2f+0.60fast3f+0.63par4f+0.76slow5f+0.75slow6f+0.82very slow
Timed runs 29 Jan 26 to 22 Aug 26.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
FISCAL POLICY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
20 Nov 25 · 6f16y · Std — finished 2nd vs 9th, 4.85L ahead · OR 82 v 79 · race median 81 (today 77)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+1.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs MR KING (IRE) (read through INTERVENTION, GRESSINGTON) ≈ -5.5L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (read through WAY TO DUBAI, ABERAMA GOLD, SECRET GUEST, REBEL PATH) ≈ +4L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) (read through BRIGHTON BOY, ROMAN DRAGON, HUSCAL, BELL SHOT) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs NYMAN (IRE) (read through DARING LEGEND, GRESSINGTON) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)Runs Prominent — a style with a share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix); its sectional profile fits on that read
LTO comment
“held up, pushed along home turn, no impression”
#6 FISCAL POLICY (IRE) MID
DRAW 9 · OR 71 · FHM 71 A● +0 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr
MARKET drifting 11 → 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
77.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
66SPEED FIGURE · #8 OF 9 READ
9.78
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 10% chance
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 8pts off the top, dropping in class; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 85
Speed Figure (FSF)
66 latest (16 Aug 26)
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance · 7f
untried at this distance
Days since last run
20
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.94% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #2 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 85 (436d ago · 6f · Class 4) — 5.7pts short of the projected 90.7. 70% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (30% won without).
Record on today’s going
0 wins from 1 run, 1 top-3 on Good to Soft
0 wins from 3 runs, 2 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
0 wins from 2 runs, 2 top-3 at Thirsk
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Ruth Carrhere 6/88 · 7% · A/E 0.87on Good to Soft 15/91 · 16% · A/E 1.75on softer than good ground 20/175 · 11% · A/E 1.41
on the Racecourse Guide’s struggle list hereFlat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 3rd in a Class 3 0-90 handicap off 72 (Pontefract, 16 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 71 is 9 lb under the 80 ceiling. A drop of 10 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Course scale · class context
steps up 8 places on the course scale (PONTEFRACT 19th → THIRSK 11th) - the track is stronger; the race itself (class and band) is weaker, see the class move above.
Field strength · class context
Stands 6lb below today's median (OR 71 v field 77) · a field 5lb weaker than last time (median 82 then) (PONTEFRACT · 16 Aug 26) · on our own book 1lb above the field (FHM 71 v field FHM median 70.1)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
3rdC3 · 6frated 776thC4 · 6frated 7311thC4 · 6frated 6517thC4 · 6frated 442ndC4 · 6frated 82
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for FISCAL POLICY (IRE)needs 90.7–91best 851 May 25 · TFR 83 · 6f · Slow · C417 May 25 · TFR 82 · 6f · Good to Firm · C41 Jun 25 · TFR 67 · 6f · Slow · C426 Jun 25 · TFR 85 · 6f · Good to Firm · C412 Jul 25 · TFR 84 · 6f · Good to Firm · C428 Oct 25 · TFR 75 · 6f · Soft · C420 Nov 25 · TFR 71 · 6f15y · Standard · C48 Dec 25 · TFR 56 · 6f20y · Slow · C328 Dec 25 · TFR 74 · 6f15y · Standard · C516 Jan 26 · TFR 63 · 6f · Standard · C530 Jan 26 · TFR 65 · 6f20y · Standard · C510 Apr 26 · TFR 78 · 6f · Good to Soft · C525 Apr 26 · TFR 75 · 6f · Good to Firm · C59 May 26 · TFR 74 · 6f · Good to Firm · C521 May 26 · TFR 69 · 6f · Good · C58 Jun 26 · TFR 83 · 6f · Good · C519 Jun 26 · TFR 78 · 6f · Good · C525 Jun 26 · TFR 82 · 6f · Good to Firm · C411 Jul 26 · TFR 44 · 6f · Good to Firm · C424 Jul 26 · TFR 65 · 6f · Good to Firm · C47 Aug 26 · TFR 73 · 6f · Good to Firm · C416 Aug 26 · TFR 77 · 6f · Good to Firm · C31 May 2516 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 19 Jun 26: 61 · 25 Jun 26: 61 · 11 Jul 26: 57 · 24 Jul 26: 64 · 7 Aug 26: 60 · 16 Aug 26: 66
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ruth Carr · 1450 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 8-16 odds, when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · 1 of 2 reverse in 2026
At Thirsk ⇆3/614.9%0.893/2611.5%1.05
At this time of year (Q3) ✦39/37010.5%1.0914/11212.5%1.11
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 3 reverse in 2026
Over 7-8f trips ⇆53/50610.5%1.1113/1807.2%0.79
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦41/5287.8%0.9314/1877.5%0.85
In Class 4-5 company ⇆54/53610.1%1.1513/1777.3%0.88
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 85 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 436d ago · 6f · Class 4) is 6pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
James Sullivan · last 14 days: 1/19 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.00 (n82, raw 0.99) · with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n901, raw 1.13)
ConsensusFIG 6READ 2VAL 2POW 2MKT 63 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~3% (model 3% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path1112.5 (10:45→14:15, drifting, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 98.9% v course avg 100.6% (−1.6) · top speed 41.2mph v 40.5 (+0.7)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.39m (n 32) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Receiptslast read Pontefract 16 Aug 26: figure ✗ · connections ✓ · class ≈ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power2nd of 9
59pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.9% is vs its own average · −0.9 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)
Stride length1st of 9
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (+0.10 m) · +0.17 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.00× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,850 runs) — a stride edge has paid nothing at sharp tracks
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Aug 26Pontefract6fGd/Frm33rd7766767282True39.5-0.0898.3+0.00
7 Aug 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm46th7360737474True42.0+0.1098.7+0.13
24 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm411th6564577574Slow early41.0+0.0097.3+0.16
11 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm417th4457467577True41.9+0.3295.0+0.01
25 Jun 26Newmarket6fGd/Frm42nd8261747578Slow early41.6+0.67106.4+0.00
19 Jun 26Newmarket6fGood53rd7861677367.5True41.3-0.3398.0+0.10
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
16 Aug 2625.3536.00+42%8th of 93rd£6.6k£225k3%30.00outran the market
7 Aug 266.908.40+22%5th of 106th£22.1k£215k10%8.40ran to expectation
24 Jul 2640.0838.00−5%11th of 2111th£3.0k£178k2%190.00ran to expectation
11 Jul 2630.6260.00+96%13th of 1917th£8.2k£239k3%75.00underran the market
25 Jun 263.122.92−7%1st of 52nd£59.3k£213k28%1.50beaten from a winning position
19 Jun 267.186.20−14%1st of 163rd£40.2k£156k26%5.60ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
16 Aug 26 kept on  ·  7 Aug 26 kept on  ·  24 Jul 26 weakened  ·  11 Jul 26 weakened  ·  25 Jun 26 kept on ✓ in-play money believed it  ·  19 Jun 26 finished strongly, no extra
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.10fast2f+0.08slow3f+0.08par4f+0.23par5f+0.11par6f+0.32slow
Timed runs 19 Jun 26 to 16 Aug 26. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) · 1 meeting · n/a
17 May 25 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 4th, 0.6L ahead · OR 78 v 82 · race median 82 (today 77) · stale — 16m ago, not in the read
STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L behind on today's terms · reverses
20 Nov 25 · 6f16y · Std — finished 9th vs 2nd, 4.85L behind · OR 79 v 82 · race median 81 (today 77)
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.4L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) (read through HAVANA BLUE, ANOTHER INVESTMENT, PRIAPOS) ≈ +6L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MR KING (IRE) (read through MISTER SOX, ROYAL ACCORD, PRIAPOS, FIFTY NIFTY) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs PACKETOFBISCUITS (read through ALFA WHITEBURD, MAGIC BOY, VALENTINE CATCHER, UNDER THE TWILIGHT) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs NYMAN (IRE) (read through ROCK OPERA, THE CHILDE OF HALE, BRIGHT, PRIAPOS) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayDrops in class todayStable cold this week — 1 wins from 15 runsRecent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)Sectional speed profile fits here — but its run-style (Mid) holds a small share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix)
LTO comment
“chased leader, ridden over 2f out, plugged on”
#7 NYMAN (IRE) MID
DRAW 3 · OR 70 · FHM 67 A● -3 · Joanna Mason / Roger Fell
MARKET 4.5 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
75.0 FORMLAB FIGURE
69SPEED FIGURE · =4 OF 9 READ
10.72
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 9% chance
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 10pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; stepping up into much stronger company on the ratings.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 88
Speed Figure (FSF)
60 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 69 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance · 7f
1 win from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.78)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 1.4s · faster than its field on the clock
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: midfield — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.94% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #1 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
suits today's track (finishing profile vs what this course demands)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 88 (308d ago · 7f · Class 4) — 2.7pts short of the projected 90.7. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (47% won without).
Record on today’s going
never raced on Good to Soft
never raced on softer than good ground
Record at this track
never raced at Thirsk
never raced over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
Roger Fellhere 1/32 · 3% · A/E 0.33on Good to Soft 5/35 · 14% · A/E 1.80on softer than good ground 6/48 · 12% · A/E 1.52Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 9th in a Class 5 0-75 handicap off 72 (Doncaster, 15 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 70 is 10 lb under the 80 ceiling. A rise of 5 lb in band ceiling and 1 class.
Field strength · class context
Stands 7lb below today's median (OR 70 v field 77) · a field 5lb stronger than last time (median 72 then) (DONCASTER · 15 Aug 26) · on our own book 3lb below the field (FHM 67 v field FHM median 70.1)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
9thC5 · 7frated 753rdC4 · 1mrated 694thC5 · 1mrated 716thC4 · 1mrated 6217thC4 · 7frated 58
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for NYMAN (IRE)needs 90.7–91best 8821 Aug 25 · TFR 80 · 1m · Slow · C310 Oct 25 · TFR 74 · 7f · Good · C41 Nov 25 · TFR 88 · 7f · Good · C427 Mar 26 · TFR 78 · 1m · Standard · C423 Apr 26 · TFR 80 · 7f97y · Good to Firm · C47 May 26 · TFR 83 · 1m · Good · C315 May 26 · TFR 58 · 7f · Good · C426 May 26 · TFR 62 · 1m · Good to Firm · C419 Jul 26 · TFR 71 · 1m · Good to Firm · C58 Aug 26 · TFR 69 · 1m · Good to Firm · C415 Aug 26 · TFR 75 · 7f · Good to Firm · C521 Aug 2515 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 7 May 26: 67 · 15 May 26: 57 · 26 May 26: 54 · 19 Jul 26: 46 · 8 Aug 26: 69 · 15 Aug 26: 60
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Fell · 466 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 3 of 5 reverse in 2026
At Thirsk0/150.0%0.861/175.9%0.90
At this time of year (Q3) ✦6/807.5%0.885/746.8%0.77
Over 7-8f trips ⇆15/13411.2%1.1210/1258.0%0.82
In fields of 8-11 ⇆18/14812.2%1.168/1027.8%0.87
Changing jockey from the last run ⇆23/18912.2%1.199/1217.4%0.88
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 88 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 308d ago · 7f · Class 4) is 3pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 5/34 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.98 (n108, raw 0.96) · with this yard: A/E 1.04 (n82, raw 1.09)
ConsensusFIG 7READ 8VAL 6POW 1MKT 22 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~3% (model 3% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path4.44.5 (10:45→14:15, steady, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 100.9% v course avg 100.6% (+0.4) · top speed 40.4mph v 40.5 (−0.1)
Eye-catcherlast run (BSP 13): the comment reads “short of room” — the visible hard-luck profile is historically OVERBET next start
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.26m (n 11) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — FITS the track
Receiptslast read Doncaster 15 Aug 26: figure ≈ · connections ✗ · pace ✗ · h2h ✗ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power1st of 9
63pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.9% is vs its own average · +1.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.13× chance (9,259 runs)
Stride length4th of 9
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (−0.01 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.06 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Aug 26Doncaster7fGd/Frm59th7560707272Slow early41.6+0.11109.4+0.30
8 Aug 26Redcar1mGd/Frm43rd6969697376.5True41.2-0.2398.0+0.17
19 Jul 26Redcar1mGd/Frm54th7146597573Slow early39.1-0.30102.4+0.00
26 May 26Redcar1mGd/Frm46th6254597781.5True39.9-0.36102.8+0.00
15 May 26York7fGood417th5857487978True39.9-0.1893.4+0.08
7 May 26Redcar1mGood34th8367767981True40.9+0.0099.7-0.03
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
15 Aug 268.6813.00+50%6th of 129th£13.7k£161k8%11.50underran the market
8 Aug 2614.9515.50+4%6th of 143rd£7.5k£168k4%8.40outran the market
19 Jul 267.906.80−14%4th of 74th£18.9k£172k11%7.20ran to expectation
26 May 265.945.21−12%3rd of 66th£22.6k£170k13%5.00underran the market
15 May 2615.3616.00+4%4th of 2217th£12.0k£258k5%17.00underran the market
7 May 2623.2223.00−1%6th of 94th£8.9k£274k3%6.20ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
15 Aug 26 denied a run, kept on, eased/not knocked about  ·  8 Aug 26 denied a run, finished strongly  ·  19 Jul 26 raced too keenly, never on terms  ·  26 May 26 outpaced  ·  15 May 26 clean  ·  7 May 26 weakened
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.00slow2f+0.85very slow3f+0.84very slow4f+0.87slow5f+0.79fast6f+0.53very fast7f+0.47very fast
Timed runs 7 May 26 to 15 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.2L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
8 Aug 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 6th, 1.2L ahead · OR 73 v 79 · race median 76.5 (today 77)
IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 Aug 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 10th, 1.5L ahead · OR 72 v 75 · race median 72 (today 77)
OBELIX · 1 meeting≈ 2.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
15 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 17th vs 12th, 2.6L behind · OR 79 v 80 · race median 78 (today 77)
MR KING (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 5.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
7 May 26 · 1m · Good — finished 4th vs 6th, 2.3L ahead · OR 79 v 80 · race median 81 (today 77)
Read through a common rival
vs MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) (read through A WAR EAGLE, ANDESITE, DOUBLE PARKED, SPIRIT GENIE) ≈ +3L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (read through DARING LEGEND, GRESSINGTON) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs PACKETOFBISCUITS (read through WAR HOWL, QUEST FOR FUN, HIGHFIELD VIKING, ROARING TWENTIES) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs FISCAL POLICY (IRE) (read through ROCK OPERA, THE CHILDE OF HALE, BRIGHT, PRIAPOS) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
8lb below its last winning mark (70 today vs 78)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, outpaced over 1f out, keeping on when short of room final 1f, eased”
#8 CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE) MID
DRAW 8 · OR 78 · FHM 68 A● -10 · Billy Garritty / David O'Meara
MARKET backed 9.4 → 8 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
72.3 FORMLAB FIGURE
74SPEED FIGURE · #2 OF 9 READ
12.50
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 8% chance
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 8th of 9 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
72.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 92
Speed Figure (FSF)
62 latest (15 Aug 26) · best 74 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
78 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance · 7f
4 wins from 21 tries · beats market expectation (1.29)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.5s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: prominent — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Midfield)
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 98.71% (one-paced late — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #8 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
no strong lean either way
The level · v projected winning figure
has run to 89 (476d ago · 1m · Class 5) — within 2pts of the projected 90.7. 70% of winning horses aged 5+ in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown it at some point.
Record on today’s going
1 win from 5 runs, 2 top-3 on Good to Soft
1 win from 5 runs, 2 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
3 wins from 7 runs, 4 top-3 at Thirsk
1 win from 4 runs, 2 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
David O'Mearahere 24/108 · 22% · A/E 1.39on Good to Soft 21/205 · 10% · A/E 0.93on softer than good ground 49/432 · 11% · A/E 0.98
on the Racecourse Guide’s go-well list hereFlat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 6th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 79 (Ripon, 15 Aug 26, turf). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 78 is 2 lb under the 80 ceiling. A drop of 5 lb in band ceiling.
Field strength · class context
Sits 1lb above today's median (OR 78 v field 77) · a field 4lb weaker than last time (median 80.5 then) (RIPON · 15 Aug 26) · on our own book 2lb below the field (FHM 68 v field FHM median 70.1)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
6thC4 · 1mrated 616thC4 · 1mrated 721stC5 · 1mrated 846thC4 · 7f96yrated 7814thC4 · 1m177yrated 58
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for CAPITAL GUARANTEE (IRE)best 92needs 90.7–9123 Apr 25 · TFR 85 · 7f · Good · C52 May 25 · TFR 66 · 7f15y · Good · C517 May 25 · TFR 89 · 1m · Good to Firm · C522 May 25 · TFR 67 · 7f · Firm · C514 Jun 25 · TFR 85 · 1m176y · Good to Firm · C428 Jun 25 · TFR 88 · 7f191y · Good · C321 Jul 25 · TFR 84 · 7f97y · Good to Soft · C43 Aug 25 · TFR 76 · 7f128y · Firm · C416 Aug 25 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good to Firm · C425 Aug 25 · TFR 88 · 1m · Good to Firm · C213 Sep 25 · TFR 68 · 7f128y · Good · C428 Sep 25 · TFR 34 · 1m · Slow · C411 Oct 25 · TFR 70 · 1m2f55y · Good · C4 · off-trip29 Mar 26 · TFR 43 · 7f · Good to Soft · C423 Apr 26 · TFR 85 · 7f97y · Good to Firm · C416 May 26 · TFR 57 · 1m · Good · C330 May 26 · TFR 57 · 7f96y · Good to Firm · C413 Jun 26 · TFR 58 · 1m177y · Good · C44 Jul 26 · TFR 78 · 7f96y · Good to Firm · C416 Jul 26 · TFR 84 · 1m · Good to Firm · C58 Aug 26 · TFR 72 · 1m · Good to Firm · C415 Aug 26 · TFR 61 · 1m · Good · C423 Apr 2515 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 30 May 26: 63 · 13 Jun 26: 61 · 4 Jul 26: 74 · 16 Jul 26: 67 · 8 Aug 26: 68 · 15 Aug 26: 62
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2363 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: in Class 1-3 company
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 3 reverse in 2026
Over 7-8f trips ✦96/81411.8%0.9823/2788.3%0.86
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ⇆117/89013.1%1.0727/3038.9%0.86
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆94/67713.9%1.0424/22710.6%0.89
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 89 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 476d ago · 1m · Class 5) is 2pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
Billy Garritty · last 14 days: 5/32 · at Thirsk: A/E 1.14 (n62, raw 1.34) · with this yard: A/E 1.07 (n13, raw 1.69)
ConsensusFIG 8READ 3VAL 3POW 8MKT 40 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~3% (model 3% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path9.48 (10:45→14:15, backed, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 98.7% v course avg 100.6% (−1.9) · top speed 40.1mph v 40.5 (−0.4)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.17m (n 30) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Course form3 career wins at this track
Receiptslast read Ripon 15 Aug 26: figure ✓ · connections ✗ · pace ✓ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.24 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power8th of 9
53pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 98.7% is vs its own average · −1.1 vs today’s field — that band wins 0.95× chance (9,444 runs)
Stride length5th of 9
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (−0.03 m) · about level with today’s field (+0.04 m)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Aug 26Ripon1mGood46th6162637980.5True39.7+0.1895.7+0.16
8 Aug 26Redcar1mGd/Frm46th7268677976.5True41.3-0.1196.4+0.00
16 Jul 26Thirsk1mGd/Frm51st8467817570True40.7+0.23108.3+0.02
4 Jul 26Beverley7f96yGd/Frm46th7874747775.5True39.2-0.2395.6+0.04
13 Jun 26York1m177yGood414th5861557979—38.6-0.9399.6+0.00
30 May 26Beverley7f96yGd/Frm49th5763578081True39.7-0.5796.7+0.15
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
15 Aug 2620.5723.79+16%6th of 106th£5.6k£231k2%18.50ran to expectation
8 Aug 2620.7516.50−20%7th of 146th£6.6k£168k4%15.50ran to expectation
16 Jul 266.2810.00+59%4th of 61st£23.1k£196k12%14.00outran the market
4 Jul 2621.2532.00+51%6th of 86th£5.1k£169k3%30.00ran to expectation
13 Jun 2697.42174.32+79%16th of 1614th£2.0k£338k1%130.00ran to expectation
30 May 2623.7325.00+5%9th of 119th£7.8k£197k4%7.40ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above
15 Aug 26 weakened, outpaced  ·  8 Aug 26 kept on, late headway  ·  16 Jul 26 kept on  ·  4 Jul 26 kept on, late headway  ·  13 Jun 26 weakened  ·  30 May 26 denied a run, outpaced, eased/not knocked about
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.30slow2f+0.42par3f+0.50fast4f+0.40par5f+0.26par6f+0.20par7f+0.66very slow1m+2.28very slow
Timed runs 30 May 26 to 15 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
NYMAN (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
8 Aug 26 · 1m · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 3rd, 1.2L behind · OR 79 v 73 · race median 76.5 (today 77)
MR KING (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 8.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
11 Oct 25 · 1m2f56y · Good — finished 8th vs 16th, 9L ahead · OR 81 v 81 · race median 81 (today 77)
OBELIX · 1 meeting · n/a
14 Jun 25 · 1m177y · Gd/Frm — finished 5th vs 10th, 6.85L ahead · OR 85 v 84 · race median 81 (today 77) · stale — 15m ago, not in the read
Read through a common rival
vs FISCAL POLICY (IRE) (read through HAVANA BLUE, ANOTHER INVESTMENT, PRIAPOS) ≈ -6L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (read through BELL SHOT, ROBERTO CARO) ≈ -1.5L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (read through WAR HOWL, SINGOURA, TATTIE BOGLE, VINCE LE PRINCE) ≈ level — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs MIDNIGHT STRIKE (IRE) (read through BELL SHOT, A WAR EAGLE, ANDESITE, GLENFINNAN) ≈ level — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
3lb above its last winning mark (78 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (21 tries, beats market expectation at 1.29)Jockey goes well at this track (1.34x market expectation)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)A course winner (3 from 7 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but its run-style (Mid) holds a small share of past C&D winners (the course strip's style-share read, not the Setup matrix)
LTO comment
“close up, ridden under 3f out, weakened”
#9 PACKETOFBISCUITS HELD-UP
DRAW 4 · OR 72 · FHM 52 A● -20 · Finlay Bassett / John Mackie
MARKET backed 65 → 40 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
43 FORMLAB FIGURE
68SPEED FIGURE · =6 OF 9 READ
24.63
FORMLAB TISSUE PRICE
we make it a 4% chance
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 42pts off the top, backed since the morning; the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
43 · ranked #9 here · career best 84
Speed Figure (FSF)
57 latest (18 Aug 26) · best 68 (last 6)
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance · 7f
4 wins from 20 tries · beats market expectation (1.82)
Days since last run
18
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
The clock's in-running read, last 6 timed runs: held-up closer — evidence only; the run-style label is the pace map's (Held up)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.83% (holds its gallop to the line — the sectional panel's own read on closing speed v its own average) · Finishing Power #3 of 9 in this field [P48]
Course fit today
reads against today's track (run style vs how races develop here)
The level · v projected winning figure
best in the last 18 months 84 (178d ago · 7f14y · Class 5) — 6.7pts short of the projected 90.7. 53% of winning 4yos in all-aged (4yo+) handicaps had shown the level first (47% won without).
Record on today’s going
1 win from 2 runs, 1 top-3 on Good to Soft
1 win from 2 runs, 1 top-3 on softer than good ground
Record at this track
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 at Thirsk
0 wins from 1 run, 0 top-3 over course and distance
The yard here and on this ground
John Mackiehere 0/6 · 0% · too few for A/Eon Good to Soft 3/16 · 19% · A/E 2.06on softer than good ground 6/42 · 14% · A/E 1.53Flat, since Sep 2023 · A/E from 10 runs
How the track has been riding1 AugGood-0.19 s/f7 AugGood-0.06 s/f14 AugGood-0.14 s/flabel · seconds per furlong v standard (Course Terminal) · − faster + slower · the clock is the read
Class move
Last time: 8th in a Class 4 0-85 handicap off 75 (Wolverhampton, 18 Aug 26, AW). Today: Class 4 0-80 handicap; its 72 is 8 lb under the 80 ceiling. A drop of 5 lb in band ceiling.
Course scale · class context
steps up 21 places on the course scale (WOLVERHAMPTON 32nd → THIRSK 11th) - the track is stronger; the race itself (class and band) is weaker, see the class move above.
Field strength · class context
Stands 5lb below today's median (OR 72 v field 77) · a near-level field move (+0lb) on last time (WOLVERHAMPTON · 18 Aug 26) · on our own book 18lb below the field (FHM 52 v field FHM median 70.1)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · per-run ratings on the FormLab scale
8thC4 · 7f36yrated 387thC4 · 7f14yrated 4112thC4 · 7frated 505thC4 · 7frated 792ndC5 · 7f14yrated 84
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Figure history for PACKETOFBISCUITSneeds 90.7–91best 8426 Mar 25 · TFR 76 · 7f · Standard · C55 Apr 25 · TFR 79 · 7f35y · Slow · C530 Apr 25 · TFR 71 · 6f209y · Good to Firm · C511 Sep 25 · TFR 76 · 7f · Slow · C522 Sep 25 · TFR 66 · 7f35y · Slow · C514 Oct 25 · TFR 79 · 7f · Good to Soft · C44 Nov 25 · TFR 72 · 7f · Good · C521 Nov 25 · TFR 43 · 7f13y · Standard · C510 Dec 25 · TFR 73 · 7f · Standard · C527 Dec 25 · TFR 73 · 1m143y · Slow · C44 Jan 26 · TFR 74 · 7f13y · Standard · C530 Jan 26 · TFR 69 · 1m13y · Standard · C510 Feb 26 · TFR 66 · 1m · Standard · C520 Feb 26 · TFR 80 · 7f13y · Slow · C528 Feb 26 · TFR 79 · 7f14y · Standard · C511 Mar 26 · TFR 84 · 7f14y · Standard · C529 Mar 26 · TFR 79 · 7f · Good to Soft · C418 Apr 26 · TFR 50 · 7f · Good · C430 Apr 26 · TFR 41 · 7f14y · Standard · C418 Aug 26 · TFR 38 · 7f36y · Standard · C426 Mar 2518 Aug 26
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
FORMLAB SPEED FIGURE · last 6 figured runs, dated · time-based, course-standard + daily variant 28 Feb 26: 66 · 11 Mar 26: 68 · 29 Mar 26: 56 · 18 Apr 26: 47 · 30 Apr 26: 46 · 18 Aug 26: 57
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Mackie · 278 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: when the money drifts against their runner
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions · all 2 hold in both windows
Over 7-8f trips ✦8/928.7%1.099/5616.1%1.15
In Class 4-5 company8/879.2%1.103/329.4%1.05
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions · 2 of 2 reverse in 2026
At this time of year (Q3) ⇆3/417.3%1.070/170.0%0.85
On turf ⇆8/5315.1%1.211/205.0%0.93
Too few runners to read reliably
At Thirsk (small sample · the book's thin gate)0/40.0%0.960/20.0%0.98
A/E shown is pulled toward 1.00 on thin samples (K=10 expected wins, registered 11 Aug 26); the raw value is on hover. The Story quotes the same shown value. ‘Small sample’ and ‘Too few runners to read reliably’ are the trainer book's own thin gate (applied at source by yard volume, not a fixed n on this page) — rows of similar n can fall either side of it.
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — best 84 (best in the last 18 months, THE LEVEL cell's own figure, TFR scale: 178d ago · 7f14y · Class 5) is 7pts short of the projected ~91 needs figure
The rider
Finlay Bassett · last 14 days: 0/3 · at Thirsk: A/E 0.99 (n1, raw 0) · with this yard: A/E 0.85 (n17, raw 0)
ConsensusFIG 9READ 9VAL 7POW 3MKT 80 of 5 instruments have him top-2
LEAD READLead chance ~3% (model 3% through the measured curve · last 10 timed runs · 9 read)
Market path6540 (10:45→14:15, backed, 14 snaps)
V course clockclosing speed 100.8% v course avg 100.6% (+0.2) · top speed 39.2mph v 40.5 (−1.3)
Stride-fitcareer stride 7.12m (n 26) v course norm 7.34m (LONG-STRIDE track) — SHORT-striding for a galloping track
Receiptslast read Wolverhampton 18 Aug 26: figure ≈ · class ✓ · pace ✓ · h2h ✓ (✓ hit · ≈ part · ✗ miss)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field · today's field median OR 77 graded 41% · miss 39% · n=15653
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
+0.20 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finishing power3rd of 9
58pct
Its final 2f against the horses it actually met, last 6 runs · closing speed 100.8% is vs its own average · +1.0 vs today’s field — that band wins 1.13× chance (9,259 runs)
Stride length9th of 9
7.04 m
Average stride per timed run · this course averages 7.355 m on this surface (−0.32 m) · −0.25 m vs today’s field — that band wins 1.02× chance at sharp tracks like this (3,854 runs)
DateCourseTripGoingClassFinFormLabFSFFHMORField ORRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
18 Aug 26Wolverhampton7f36yStd48th3857547577Slow early39.9+0.1297.5+0.10
30 Apr 26Southwell7f14yStd47th4146557777Fast early39.6+0.1192.8+0.15
18 Apr 26Thirsk7fGood412th5047487980.5True39.5-0.29105.3+0.17
29 Mar 26Doncaster7fGd/Sft45th7956687975.5Slow early37.1+0.17103.1+0.34
11 Mar 26Southwell7f14yStd52nd8468797573True39.7+0.49103.5+0.20
28 Feb 26Southwell7f14yStd51st7966767068True39.5+0.60102.7+0.33
The market, run by run · BSP & pre-off volume vs the result
DateMorningBSPMoveSent offFinishedTradedPoolShareIn-runWas it expected?
18 Aug 2642.9350.00+16%7th of 98th£2.5k£182k1%11.50ran to expectation
30 Apr 267.826.57−16%3rd of 77th£19.2k£166k12%4.90underran the market
18 Apr 2610.8814.02+29%8th of 1212th£9.0k£128k7%14.00underran the market
29 Mar 269.6312.33+28%5th of 165th£13.9k£195k7%6.20ran to expectation
11 Mar 264.084.20+3%2nd of 92nd£65.1k£243k27%2.10ran to expectation
28 Feb 265.493.23−41%2nd of 71st£40.7k£125k32%4.00ran to expectation
Reading the market: Morning is the horse’s morning price on the exchange, BSP what it started at — the day’s whole journey — and Move is the morning→BSP change in per cent; its colour and hover carry the house market_move word (STEAM / DRIFT / STABLE — a read of price, traded money and pool together, not a price-ratio rule) or, where that module is absent, the Betfair importer flag, named as such. In-run is the telling extreme it traded DURING the race: for a beaten horse the low (short means beaten from a winning position), for a winner the high (long means won from a losing position). Traded is what was matched on this horse before the off, Pool is the whole race’s matched money, Share is one as a percentage of the other — the market’s conviction that day. 25%+ on one horse is heavy conviction; low single figures means the market was barely watching. Measured over 204,258 next-runs: “outran the market” predicts nothing next time (A/E 1.00); a heavy-money flop wins more next time (1.26×) but the price adjusts (A/E 1.00).
Trip notes · trouble & run-style in the comments, same runs as the tables above · the comments say ‘slow away’ on 1 of these 6 — the Break cell counts the 0-20mph split, a different measure
18 Aug 26 had to switch, weakened ✓ in-play money believed it  ·  30 Apr 26 weakened  ·  18 Apr 26 weakened  ·  29 Mar 26 finished strongly  ·  11 Mar 26 slow away, finished strongly, late headway, no extra  ·  28 Feb 26 clean
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+1.08slow2f+0.96par3f+0.70par4f+0.54slow5f+0.61slow6f+0.83slow7f+2.60very slow
Timed runs 28 Feb 26 to 18 Aug 26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met graded 56% · miss 44% · n=3859 · null 50%
Read through a common rival
vs IMPERIAL GUARD (IRE) (read through WAR HOWL, GRABAJABBA, SIR GARFIELD, BELLA BISBEE) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs FISCAL POLICY (IRE) (read through ALFA WHITEBURD, MAGIC BOY, VALENTINE CATCHER, UNDER THE TWILIGHT) ≈ +2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs NYMAN (IRE) (read through WAR HOWL, QUEST FOR FUN, HIGHFIELD VIKING, ROARING TWENTIES) ≈ -2L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
vs STANLEY SPENCER (IRE) (read through BRIGHTON BOY, SUPREME KING, UNDER THE TWILIGHT, BEAUTY CHOICE) ≈ +1L — CHAINED graded 55% · miss 45% · n=7850 · null 50%
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayProven over the trip (20 tries, beats market expectation at 1.82)Recent comments suggest it weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the market (the bspwax price-history profile: value, HIGH confidence — a different measure from the blind-BSP return in the Story)
LTO comment
“mid-division, brief effort 2f out, weakened over 1f out”
The lean: OBELIX · both orders settle in the nightly record either way. This report is a snapshot: figures, market and going are as of build time. · build 621a6d8the full settled record →  ·  ↑ back to top